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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 03:41pm PT
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OK, back to Tamino's idea. He posed this question: suppose it is 1997 and we are trying to look ahead, what temperatures would we expect from that point? A really simple way to answer that is to calculate a trend over the period of available data, 1979-1997, and project that into the future.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 03:45pm PT
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And then, what did we actually observe? In the graph below, the trend line is the same as the previous image -- calculated from 1979-1997 data only. It turns out that most of the subsequent months are above the trend we would have predicted in 1997.
Tamino's version uses annual data instead of monthly, looks at each index separately instead of one principal component, but reaches basically the same conclusion. The warming post-1997 has, in fact, been greater than if it had stayed on the 1979-1997 trend.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 03:46pm PT
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the deniers here wouldn't know a λ if it kicked them in the ass Yah, one of the many many asymmetries here.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jan 31, 2014 - 03:46pm PT
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Thanks Chiloe. That is why I periodically pose the questions below.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 03:57pm PT
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Yes, I see Monolith is making much the same point.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 04:14pm PT
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FM, that seems intuitive but might be relatively minor. The ocean can warm surface air temperatures several degrees without cooling much itself, because of the difference in mass.
Heat released in El Nino may be from subsurface but not deep waters, so perhaps the OHC 0-700 meters data are relevant. Not sure this is interpretable, but FWIW there appears to be a dip in 1998. It would be great to hear better-informed views from an oceanographer if we had one handy.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 04:20pm PT
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It's a good question, perhaps we can find somebody who has worked out the math.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 31, 2014 - 04:32pm PT
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...but I'd really like to see central pacific deep ocean temperature data, instead of global temp data. NOAA breaks it down into N and S Pacific, as well as 0-700 and 0-2000 depths. The data are linked here:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 31, 2014 - 05:23pm PT
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I really think you guys only post here because you enjoy insulting each other.
Actually. I come here to see the stuff that folks like Ed and Chiloe post. Crazy good info. Just look at what Chiloe gave us over the past couple of pages.
It's just that I feel insulted when I have to read the BS that the 'children' here post. I don't mind deniers, if they have the ability to present a point and back it up. Or at least pretend that they are interested in discussing their viewpoint(s).
Hey, I read another great quote today:
We are coming to understand health not as the absence of disease, but rather as the process by which individuals maintain their sense of coherence (i.e. sense that life is comprehensible, manageable, and meaningful) and ability to function in the face of changes in themselves and their relationships with their environment.
 Aaron Antonovsky |
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WBraun
climber
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Jan 31, 2014 - 05:29pm PT
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Yes ^^^^
This is the correct definition of health.
Disease is impossible to eliminate on the material platform.
The material body is the disease itself.
We have nothing really to do with this material creation.
It's not our home ......
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Jan 31, 2014 - 07:30pm PT
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Chef,Do you realize what Exxon is trying to do sponsoring,CC meetings and penquin research?
Greenwashing.
Total look at me propaganda.
Not only that ,It deflects real scrutiny.
Just as they are trying to push a pipeline through.
Yeah, to refine tar sands products.
Or, Exportation.
Again ,anything to deflect,especially their reliability record.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 31, 2014 - 08:06pm PT
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Base do you actually read half the crap from either side? Did you read Ed's penguin find about a bunch of dudes who wanted s paid vacation to paddle the fjords of Patagonia and when they wereupset the rain proceeded to kill off penguin chicks on paper of course. Have you read any of the papers blaming violence and war on AGW. Have you read any of the reams of sociologist papers studying what the deficiencies are that don't allow a majority of reasonable people to care a wit of this CAGW crock of shet. Well Base, if you could look at the matter impartially you would see a tremendous amount of pal review of total baloney papers, especially on the AGW side. NO I didn't do much more than glance at the issue I posted. I've read most of the gist of it before.
No Rick, I don't read every paper posted here. Who has the time? A retired person, maybe.
I was really curious as to why an entire publication was shut down after one issue. When I read the first three papers, I knew why. Yes, I suppose it is certainly very slim peer review. That isn't the point.
Go read the first three articles and you will realize how nutty that journal was. It sure doesn't read like good science.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Doubt Bruce? There is no doubt, CAGW is a crock of shet, it's flimsy seams are about to burst and it's main supporters are removing fingers from the stinking leaks as they engage in slow backup mode, ready to run to escape the flood of their pollutants. And yet your sorry brainwashed ass is still here, holding the bag and babbling an endless incoherent stream. Your mouth runneth over, much like the Rob Ford you love to highlight.
Backup your incoherence, why Bruce? Your response below is more than adequate.
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WBraun
climber
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No not true.
Science is eternal.
Science is based on truth.
Without truth there is no science .....
Modern people took Science and turned it into Scientism due to their poor fund of knowledge.
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WBraun
climber
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STFU Bruce
You're an idiot period .....
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dirtbag
climber
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Science is PEOPLE. Without PEOPLE, science does not exist.
Science is nothing more than a human invention and tool to assume it understands.
Lick this #1:
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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With all due respect Dr. Hartouni, haven't you been here going on five years now preaching to your diminishing choir? I guess you can't tell, but neither you, Chiloe, Mono, Kelly, Mentalcase, babblin Bruce, nor any combination of you guys, has remotely proven the catastrophic part of anthropogenic global warming.Hell, even the degree of anthropogenic in global warming is decreasing-you can't really expect anyone this side of brain death to accept the rewrite course, most evident by that grossly unscientific Cowtan and Way 2013, you guys are foisting onto your gullible selves. The world just aint buying it amigo, hell their more concerned with Justin Beiber or Miley Cyrus or Duck Dynasty than the comical farce of CAGW. I can sense your protective stance towards science and scientists, but this ever shifting jig of CAGW looks as scientific as the astrology papers you just reviewed for us.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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welcome to the anthropocene.
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