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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 02:38pm PT
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The ENSO-related wind variability mentioned by Balmeseda et al. is explored from a different angle in a 2013 Nature paper by Kosaka & Xie, filling in other parts of the puzzle.
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century1, 2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4, 5, 6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
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raymond phule
climber
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Jan 21, 2014 - 04:14pm PT
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I am curious how the data in sketch figure where sampled. My guess is that they looked at all the data and only choose that stations that had an old max temperature in an area.
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raymond phule
climber
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Jan 21, 2014 - 05:04pm PT
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Strange
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp
Looks like Sydney's record high temperature were achieved the 18 January 2013.
Why wasn't that included in Sketch figure?
O sh#t, I also realized that sketch figure don't even include the record warm 2013. So it is both old and probably based on cheery picking of stations.
The peer"review" at what up with that really seems to work...
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 05:24pm PT
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I don't normally look at Australia but since it's so much under discussion here ...
The UAH upper-troposphere temperature index (1979 to present) recently started listing separate values for Australia. You can't see daily extremes, or max and minimum, in these monthly averages. Also, they only go back 36 years. But FWIW here is what those data look like. The trend (+.16 C/decade) is slightly steeper than that for the UAH global index (+.14 C/decade).
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 05:30pm PT
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And here are yearly averages from the same UAH lower-troposphere series.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jan 21, 2014 - 06:07pm PT
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Here's a good one from a right-wing humorist based in Aspen (he's a retired lawyer, so has extra credibility to me).
Down in Antarctica, some global-warming types were spending government grants to document the disappearance of sea ice until their ship became icebound in the disappearing sea ice. If we’re lucky, in the new year they’ll visit the Arctic to document the disappearing polar bears.
http://www.aspentimes.com/opinion/9774795-113/council-obama-restaurant-column
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 06:41pm PT
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from a right-wing humorist Chris Turney, leader of the 2013 Australasian Antarctic Expedition, became the ad hominem du jour throughout the right-wing blogosphere for a while. Witness the many examples on this thread, not one of them from anyone who knew more than their blog's talking points about the man or the expedition. Sounds like blahblah's right-winger knows nothing but the ad hom yuk-yuks too.
I don't know this guy's work, but here is what the Australian Academy of Science said in awarding Turney their Frederick White Prize.
Professor Chris Turney
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of New South Wales
Professor Turney is an internationally recognised earth scientist and research leader in both climate and environmental change, from the tropics to the poles. By pioneering new ways of combining climate models with records of past climate change (spanning from hundreds to thousands of years), he has discovered new links between variability mechanisms in the Australian region and global climate change.
Whatever mistakes Turney and the ship's Russian captain made to get stuck in wind-driven ice, they join a very long list of other Arctic and Antarctic vessels that have been iced in as well. Including, quite recently, two of the icebreakers that tried to come to their aid. But there's no right-wing mileage in yukking about them.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 06:51pm PT
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The AAS award recognizes Turney for his scientific contributions, some of which can be seen here.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jan 21, 2014 - 07:02pm PT
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Sounds like blahblah's right-winger knows nothing but the ad hom yuk-yuks too.
Chiloe, my right-winger is just a humorist (and a retired patent lawyer with whom I used to work). I liked his polar bear joke, and it seemed apropos to this thread both for the ice component and the polar bears (which as I recall were hotly debated a few thousand posts ago).
If you can't see a little humor in an anti-global-warming crusader getting iced in as he attempts to document the decline in sea ice, sheesh, what can you say.
Quite a few posters on this this thread could stand to lighten up, regardless of what they think about climate change.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 07:21pm PT
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If you can't see a little humor in an anti-global-warming crusader getting iced in as he attempts to document the decline in sea ice, sheesh, what can you say. That would be funny if it were true, but every part of your statement is false. Did you not know that? The political ad hom attacks rest on dishonesty so no, they aren't nearly so hi-larious as you think.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 07:30pm PT
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Here's a partial list of research articles by blahblah's "anti-global warming crusader," actually a scientist but they all look alike. Numbers after each entry are the number of citations (per Google Scholar) and year of publication.
IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0-50,000 yeats cal BP
PJ Reimer, MGL Baillie, E Bard, A Bayliss, JW Beck, PG Blackwell, CB Ramsey ... 2293 2009
Archaeology and age of a new hominin from Flores in eastern Indonesia
MJ Morwood, RP Soejono, RG Roberts, T Sutikna, CSM Turney, KE Westaway, WJ ...
Nature 431 (7012), 1087-1091 309 2004
Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data
MJ Power, J Marlon, N Ortiz, PJ Bartlein, SP Harrison, FE Mayle, A Ballouche ...
Climate Dynamics 30 (7-8), 887-907 205 2008
Early human occupation at Devil's Lair, southwestern Australia 50,000 years ago
CSM Turney, MI Bird, LK Fifield, RG Roberts, M Smith, CE Dortch, R Grün, E ...
Quaternary Research 55 (1), 3-13 175 2001
Radiocarbon dating of" old" charcoal using a wet oxidation, stepped-combustion procedure.
MI Bird, LK Ayliffe, LK Fifield, CM Turney, RG Cresswell, TT Barrows, B David
Radiocarbon 41 (2), 127-140 168 2006
The ‘human revolution’in lowland tropical Southeast Asia: the antiquity and behavior of anatomically modern humans at Niah Cave (Sarawak, Borneo)
G Barker, H Barton, M Bird, P Daly, I Datan, A Dykes, L Farr, D Gilbertson ...
Journal of Human Evolution 52 (3), 243-261 138 2007
Millennial and orbital variations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period
CSM Turney, AP Kershaw, SC Clemens, N Branch, PT Moss, LK Fifield
Nature 428 (6980), 306-310 138 2004
Extraction of rhyolitic component of Vedde microtephra from minerogenic lake sediments
CSM Turney
Journal of Paleolimnology 19 (2), 199-206 102 1998
The use of microtephra horizons to correlate Late-glacial lake sediment successions in Scotland
CSM Turney, DD Harkness, JJ Lowe
Journal of Quaternary Science 12 (6), 525-531 99 1997
A new and less destructive laboratory procedure for the physical separation of distal glass tephra shards from sediments
SPE Blockley, SDF Pyne-O’Donnell, JJ Lowe, IP Matthews, A Stone, AM Pollard ...
Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (16), 1952-1960 77 2005
Redating the onset of burning at Lynch's Crater (North Queensland): implications for human settlement in Australia
CSM Turney, AP Kershaw, P Moss, MI Bird, LK Fifield, RG Cresswell, GM Santos ...
Journal of Quaternary Science 16 (8), 767-771 77 2001
Asynchronous climate change between New Zealand and the North Atlantic during the last deglaciation
CSM Turney, MS McGlone, JM Wilmshurst
Geology 31 (3), 223-226 75 2003
Towards a European tephrochronological framework for Termination 1 and the Early Holocene
SM Davies, NP Branch, JJ Lowe, CSM Turney
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A ... 75 2002
Devensian Lateglacial environmental changes in Britain: a multi-proxy environmental record from Llanilid, South Wales, UK
MJC Walker, GR Coope, C Sheldrick, CSM Turney, JJ Lowe, SPE Blockley, DD ...
Quaternary Science Reviews 22 (5), 475-520 73 2003
The chronology of palaeoenvironmental changes during the Last Glacial-Holocene transition: towards an event stratigraphy for the British Isles
JJ Lowe, HH Birks, SJ Brooks, GR Coope, DD Harkness, FE Mayle, C Sheldrick ...
Journal of the Geological Society 156 (2), 397-410 67 1999
Implications for the dating of Wisconsinan (Weichselian) Late-Glacial events of systematic radiocarbon age differences between terrestrial plant macrofossils from a site in SW Ireland
CSM Turney, GR Coope, DD Harkness, JJ Lowe, MJC Walker
Quaternary Research 53 (1), 114-121 64 2000
Catastrophic early Holocene sea level rise, human migration and the Neolithic transition in Europe
CSM Turney, H Brown
Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (17), 2036-2041 61 2007
Tephrochronology of Last Termination sequences in Europe: a protocol for improved analytical precision and robust correlation procedures (a joint SCOTAV–INTIMATE proposal)
CSM Turney, JJ Lowe, SM Davies, V Hall, DJ Lowe, S Wastegård, WZ Hoek, B Alloway
Journal of Quaternary Science 19 (2), 111-120 61 2004
Radiocarbon analysis of the early archaeological site of Nauwalabila I, Arnhem Land, Australia: implications for sample suitability and stratigraphic integrity
MI Bird, CSM Turney, LK Fifield, R Jones, LK Ayliffe, A Palmer, R Cresswell ...
Quaternary Science Reviews 21 (8), 1061-1075 60 2002
Carbon isotope fractionation in wood during carbonization
CSM Turney, D Wheeler, AR Chivas
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70 (4), 960-964 55 2006
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 07:52pm PT
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can you not admit there was something a little bizarre about the entire enterprise? What, that a ship got stuck in sea ice near Antarctica?
Can you not admit that every part of your declaration below is false? Or do you still believe it and that's why you're still sure it's yukyuk?
an anti-global-warming crusader getting iced in as he attempts to document the decline in sea ice
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 21, 2014 - 08:00pm PT
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If only Larry had some hair left to let down over his overly stuffed shirt's stiff collar. He probably cried as a child when he watched the Roadrunner cartoon.
Larry, you need to study the works of the great Dr. Hartouni for a statistically significant sense of humor.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Jan 21, 2014 - 08:09pm PT
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If all you got out of the story is that a ship got caught in sea ice, I give up. Quite a few million people around the world seemed to get a bit more out of it than that, but if you're not one of them, so be it.
Can you not admit that every part of your declaration below is false? Or do you still believe it and that's why you're still sure it's yukyuk? an anti-global-warming crusader getting iced in as he attempts to document the decline in sea ice
I'm not sure that a quick post about a joke relating to climate change made on a climbing forum really qualifies as "declaration," at last as most people use the word,
But yes, if every part of my, let's call it a "statement," can be shown false, then I'll own up to it.
From quick Googling, it does appear that the redoubtable Prof. Turney is indeed a committed anti-global warmer. You may not like me calling him a "crusader," but that hardly makes it a false statement.
And a purpose of the voyage, as I understand it, was in fact to document evidence of climate change.
If I'm mistaken on the above, I'm sure Chiloe can enlighten us!
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 21, 2014 - 08:23pm PT
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"Weak kneed"- how did you know. Got a hell of a flu going, hurt all over including the knees. As far as Ak, i wouldn't know other than the on the ground reports from my son(s) every third day or so when they call with this question or that. Plenty of snow (above average) on dec 30 when we returned to nv, since then the precip and temps have been all over the board according to aforementioned sons. Doggie donations safely inert till breakup. You got to admit that Larry's sense of humor is statistically indistinguishable from zero.
Well, very good Larry, that's a start. Now you really should look to Ed for some additional pointers.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 21, 2014 - 08:26pm PT
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I don't laugh with Rush Limbaugh, either, though sometimes I laugh at him.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Jan 21, 2014 - 09:12pm PT
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Hey WELBEERE!!!!
Just like the one WELBEERE just posted...
Name-calling
Propagandists use the name-calling technique to incite fears and arouse prejudices in their hearers in the intent that the bad names will cause hearers to construct a negative opinion about a group or set of beliefs or ideas that the propagandist wants hearers to denounce. The method is intended to provoke conclusions about a matter apart from impartial examinations of facts. Name-calling is thus a substitute for rational, fact-based arguments against the an idea or belief on its own merits.
So you mispelled his name again? LOL!
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Jan 21, 2014 - 09:39pm PT
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The schrapnel is in the head right?
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