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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 19, 2014 - 11:12pm PT
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Caps and BOLD.
niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice.
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TLP
climber
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Jan 19, 2014 - 11:39pm PT
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Ed is absolutely correct: look at the real data, not just a derivative plot. But not having the time to do that just now, I'll just note that it certainly isn't a blip, but sure looks exactly like two big cooling trends even more notable that the much ballyhooed "hiatus" of the last 13 years (which is certainly real - but as for these earlier ones, easily within the range of natural variation around the overall increasing temperature trend from increasing GHGs).
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 20, 2014 - 01:48am PT
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It's good that the mesmerized but brain dead flock that are cheered on by a small group of ready for pasture scientists here, are keeping their faith of a firey doom. Meanwhile the high priests, Trenberth among them,are suffering a spiritual crisis and may leave the fleeced flocks behind with their infilled, smoothed, adjusted, temp graphs and imaginary matching models to impress a maddening crowd. The "pause" has gone global, and mainstream ,and the race is on to find the combination of pesky natural mechanism's responsible so as to properly explain them away in the typical twisted CAGW fashion before the world fully realizes the magnitude of the overhype. Take a look at this publication below again.
http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 20, 2014 - 01:57am PT
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Meanwhile the high priests, Trenberth among them,are suffering a spiritual crisis and may leave the fleeced flocks behind with their infilled, smoothed, adjusted, temp graphs and imaginary matching models.
Wow, is that really something I'm supposed to take seriously?
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 20, 2014 - 01:59am PT
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Yes Bruce, besides planning on littering the great state of the land of fruits and nuts ( in your last post to The Chief), it took you 22,500 posts to quit lying about being a capitalist and admit to your true ideology. Real ethics from B.C. Bruce.By the way littering is fined steeply.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 20, 2014 - 02:08am PT
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There is a fool born every minute and i aint one of them. Sold out my 33% stake in a placer mine near Nelchina 3 years ago and am not going back into it. However, i have some beautiful property that may interest you.
EDIT; not a loss, there's a gold rush on and i'm sure they are striking it rich. They had a lot of faith.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 20, 2014 - 11:38am PT
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How many hundreds of miles you put on that FF burning C02 emitting Hoopty Van of yours this weekend to go climbing, WADE??
Now that is definitely... NIIIIIIIIIIIIICE!
Pure Fantasy (a specialty of yours.) and pretty f*#king creepy that you're fantasizing about how I spend my weekends...
all this eco-frenzy ideology, get into your gas guzzling C02 emitting Van and drive around the West, aimlessly and selfishly, climbing.
Obviously doing your part to Walk your Talk.....
Nice.
Well Cheese in the interest of civil discourse; My 'Hoopty Van' is a 4cylinder '91 nissan with almost 400k on it. Runs like top but sleeps in the garage most of the time. I only have info for this year so far but biking and public transit have yielded the following personal stats:
yeah, not much, but if it's enough to earn the ECO FREAK TREE HUGGING COMMUNIST (ooh look, BOLD AND CAPS!!!) designation from a TOOL like you, then I'm "Obviously doing my part to Walk my Talk... while you seem to be just talking.
NIIIIIIIIIIIIICE!
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 20, 2014 - 12:02pm PT
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Yeah Chief, Ed, Chiloe and others are part of the readjust data temps to make it appear that warming never paused camp. Perhaps the most delusional of all the reality denialist groups. Pity the poor fools.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 20, 2014 - 12:15pm PT
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^BULLSHET!!!^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
your usual articulate response to facts. but a bit disappointing,
i expected more from The Chief bully of the eigth grade. I understand, that's all you've got. It's the best you can do. a great sound and fury etc...
maybe this graph of yours will clear things up.
The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
Sun Tzu
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 12:19pm PT
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It will get buried soon enough in the avalanche of Chief's emo-drama and Rick's fantasies, but for the reality-based crew, here's an image that combines those big ocean oscillations we've been hearing about, along with global temperature (GISTEMP):
MEI -- multivariate El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index
PDO -- Pacific Decadal Oscillation index
AMO -- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index
Blue lines in these graphs are monthly values, the red shows a lowess smoothed curve calculated with a bandwidth equal to 40% of the data. (Higher lowess bandwidths would smooth more aggressively, lower bandwidths would smooth less, until we got back to the jagged monthly values.)
Incidentally the PDO etc. are called "oscillations" and not "cycles" because they don't follow a clear cyclical pattern. Some cycle-seeking statistical methods seem to find cycles but those results prove hard to replicate with other methods, and cyclical models seem not to have much forecasting or backcasting skill. Other analyses suggest the cycles might be artifacts.
In any event, you should be able to see from these graphs what most scientists know -- the various oscillations are linked to year-to-year variations in air temperatures, but can't drive longer term climate change.
In physical terms the oscillations etc. are circulation phenomena that can move heat around, but don't create it.
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TLP
climber
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Jan 20, 2014 - 12:53pm PT
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Thanks, Chiloe. Unsure which way the "linkage" goes (maybe just "correlated with"), but to my outsider's eye, it sure looks like the area with the biggest potential for an incredibly enlightening climatological discovery is in figuring out how ocean circulation works (fully), what drives it, and so on. Really interesting area, but to me it looks like a nearly black box. And unlike the sun, all that water is right here, with enough of the right instrumentation, you can just go and get all the data you want.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 01:17pm PT
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Thanks, Chiloe. Unsure which way the "linkage" goes (maybe just "correlated with"), but to my outsider's eye, it sure looks like the area with the biggest potential for an incredibly enlightening climatological discovery is in figuring out how ocean circulation works (fully), what drives it, and so on. Yes, as you say this is the focus of much research now. It's clear that ENSO affects interannual variations, and that it's been in a negative mood lately suppressing air temperature rise. As that Nature story Rick keeps citing notes, heat and water (a 20cm mountain!) are piling up in the western tropical Pacific, where it looks kinda unstable. But a big question is, what's driving ENSO? Does current ENSO behavior reflect internal variability same as it ever was, or is it instead a manifestation/consequence of change? There's no consensus on that yet AFAIK.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 01:56pm PT
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In writing I sometimes use fancy terms like biased assimilation, disconfirmation bias or cultural cognition -- things that are rampant on this thread, it's like a petri dish for them.
But I am writing now to share a new (for me) discovery that is better than those, it's called Morton's demon:
Morton's demon stands at the gateway of a person's senses and lets in facts that agree with that person's beliefs while deflecting those that do not.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 20, 2014 - 02:16pm PT
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I never really knew what an El Nino event was:
"El Niņo refers to a pattern of unusually warm water stretching across the surface of eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3-7 years. That warm water influences climate patterns around the world, increasing the likelihood of wet and cool weather in the Southeast, heavy rain in California, warm and dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest, and host of other global impacts.
Some of the effects:
The strongest El Nino ever recorded occurred in 1997-98. It led to heavy rains across the southern U.S., landslides in Peru, wildfires in Indonesia, and the cratering of the anchovy fishery in the eastern Pacific. These and other impacts were responsible an estimated $35-45 billion in damage and 23,000 deaths worldwide.
There's a cool graphic that shows the El Nino pattern, and a seemingly corresponding pattern in Scandinavia:
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 20, 2014 - 02:30pm PT
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Morton's demon stands at the gateway of a person's senses and lets in facts that agree with that person's beliefs while deflecting those that do not.
That's interesting.
I assume everybody has their own personal Morton's demon. I know for me, keeping that demon turned down requires constant attention--it's so easy to be lazily lulled into predetermined beliefs. I've also noticed that for some, their Morton's demon attenuation knob needs a full-on re-celebration.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 02:44pm PT
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There's an approach in statistics called "Exploratory Data Analysis" (EDA) pioneered by John Tukey, that you might describe as being designed to outwit Morton's demon. Although Morton's demon is a more recent discovery, and Tukey never put it in those terms.
Anyway, EDA involves analytical methods and especially graphics designed to highlight key features of the data whether or not those features are the ones you want or expect to see. For example, many classic statistical methods work best with normally-distributed variables, so there is some temptation for data analysts to assume normality and then head for Mars. But you can't look at a Tukey-designed graphic such as box plots or stem-and-leaf displays, and imagine normality if it's not there. Tukey's EDA approach strongly influenced my own analytical style, over the years.
Circling back to this thread: When I did the PDO analysis a few pages back, I had suspicions but did not know or control how they would pan out. Such discovery-of-things-you-don't-know is a key aspect of science, the reason science works and is fun.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 20, 2014 - 03:48pm PT
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Possibly so, a well-designed image can convey a lot of information, including the patterns in a whole lot of numbers. Of course less well-designed images could hide information instead, which is why it's great to work "hands-on" with the data.
Here's a new image du jour (no fooling here): NOAA has just published Ocean Heat Content data for the last 3 months of 2013. In both their 0-700 and 0-2000 meter indexes, the end of 2013 had the warmest 3 months they've seen yet.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jan 20, 2014 - 05:09pm PT
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huh?
did you miss the main point of the poll, ron?
the point is that farmers, far more than the general public, believe in global warming
and in fact, the percentage of farmers doing so has gone up
you missed this part?
the percentage of farmers who believe that climate change is occurring increased from 67.7 percent in 2011 to 74.3 percent in 2013,
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 20, 2014 - 05:13pm PT
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The climate has been changing for four billion years & now you think has stopped?
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