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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 13, 2014 - 08:01pm PT
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Okay O wise and intelligent Chiloe... tell us what a disinterested observer might consider humorous about the Spirit of Mawson Antarctic expedition. You gave up pretty quickly on trying to articulate your own train of thought.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Jan 13, 2014 - 10:13pm PT
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TGT,
save yourself the trouble of posting..
no one clicks on your links, you have no credibility
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Jan 14, 2014 - 05:29am PT
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Bruce, that was an excellent interview with Neil.Thanks.He sounds so ,utopian,er,even ethical.Somebody here will throw him under his biodiesel bus,though.
Sketch,yes ,I live in Honeoye Falls and have nothing to hide.You coming up to ice fish Honeoye Lake? You first ,I mean being an ice expert and all.
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WBraun
climber
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Jan 14, 2014 - 10:30am PT
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Your style???? ^^^^^^
Bruce you made four paragraphs and said absolutely nothing at all as usual .... zero!!!
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 14, 2014 - 11:04am PT
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Ed,
The problem that the upstream E&P companies are facing is that there isn't very much easy to find oil left.
The U.S. decline curve has reversed over the past few years due to all of the horizontal drilling, but for people who think that the Bakken is the answer to our problems, that idea is false. The U.S. had something like 190 billion bbls of oil and we have produced most of it.
The best place to go for oil and gas information is without a doubt the Energy Information Administration
http://www.eia.gov/
Natural gas, which you mentioned, is a different story. Very few of the shale plays are liquids rich. There are areas where the finding cost exceeds the value at $100/bbl, but we are swimming in natural gas. Drilling for natural gas has almost stopped at the moment because gas prices are low. They are low due to the massive amount of new gas on the market from the shale gas plays.
It usually takes about 8 horizontal wells to drain a square mile. Right now, many of those wells aren't paying out due to gas prices being so low. Oil is sky high, but natural gas prices are where they were 20 years ago.
It takes one well to hold the leases, so what companies are doing is drilling one well per square mile to hold the leases by production. We call these leases "HBP" or held by production.
The other 7 wells per section are called "increased density" wells, and the number of increased density wells is huge. That paper that you cited doesn't accurately portray natural gas reserves.
In some markets, liquefied natural gas, or LNG, can be exported via ship, but this is very expensive. There are massive natural gas fields in the middle east that were discovered long ago and still sit idle due to no market.
To understand markets, you need to understand long haul vs. short haul tanker runs. We actually use very little oil from the middle east. Most of our imports come from Mexico, Canada, and the Atlantic Basin countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, etc. This is all explained on the EIA website, which is sort of like the NSA of energy statistics.
Look at Iran. Iran has several of the largest natural gas fields on the planet, but as far as oil goes, Iran is considered "mature." Mature means that it is well explored. They are currently switching to natural gas as a transportation fuel so that they can export their oil, which is their only source of income.
We could do the same. It isn't difficult to convert a vehicle to run on natural gas, it is also cleaner in both CO2 emissions, but other pollutants as well. The only down side is that you have to fill up twice as often.
I've attached a map showing part of the Woodford Shale play in the Anadarko Basin. It shows an area where they have drilled the increased density wells, and around it areas where only one well per section are holding the leases. There are vast areas where no increased density wells have been drilled. The companies paid huge amounts for the leases, most of which have a 3 year primary term, and if you don't get production within that primary term, the leases expire.
First is an outline of the Anadarko Basin Woodford Play. I am only showing the horizontals. There are thousands of old vertical wells which produced conventional reservoirs:
Here I have zoomed in on a small area where they have drilled the increased density wells (8 wells per square mile).
This gas is proven, undeveloped (PUD's). The amount of undrilled natural gas in these plays is huge.
It is also very easy to hit oil. It is much harder to hit oil in quantities where the wells pay out. With oil now ag 100 bucks per bbl, many places that were not economic in the past, are now.
I would urge you to get your energy data from the EIA website. They rule.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 14, 2014 - 11:28am PT
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A few pages back, Fortmental posted notes from a new cognitive study asking why people's views about climate change can be influenced by today's weather -- as many posters here, but pretty much no scientists, seem seem to think that it should.
Anyway, today the Christian Science Monitor's science reporter Peter Spotts has a story about that study.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 14, 2014 - 11:37am PT
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Ed,
Yep, I've been hollering for a carbon tax since Reagan. His energy policy was Cheap Oil At Any Cost. Prices cratered, the domestic industry imploded.
We waste too much of the stuff whether you believe in global warming or not. 5% of the world's population uses 25% of the world's production, and transportation is the main use of liquid hydrocarbons. We fight wars based on keeping the cost down.
Coal is the preferred method of generating electricity. They build coal fired power plants in Oklahoma, Louisiana, Texas, and it drives the natural gas producers nuts.
The thinking in the domestic industry is to convert to nat gas as a transportation fuel, and use that as a bridge to get us to something truly clean. Methane is the cleanest of them all.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 14, 2014 - 11:49am PT
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No BK,, the NASA report says the drought is FROM tectonic activities in the pacific. Nary an AGW werd was heard. Why don't you track down that NASA report, Ron, and find out what it really said?
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 14, 2014 - 12:02pm PT
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Ed,
I mentioned the only problem with natural gas as a transportation fuel:
You only go half as far before having to fill up again.
It is ideal for fleet vehicles such as busses and UPS, etc. They have been using natural gas for decades. It saves them a ton of money, particularly right now.
If we switched to natural gas as a transportation fuel, our imports would shrink a great deal. Then we wouldn't have to keep a Nimitz class carrier group in the Middle East 24/7.
The argument over fracking is 99% made up baloney. The wells are low pressure producers compared to, say, an overpressured Springer Sand well that has 15,000 psia flowing pressure.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Jan 14, 2014 - 12:33pm PT
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Jan 14, 2014 - 01:47pm PT
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Hazardous containment water? I don't know much.
If you are referring to flow back frack load water, it is now cheaper to recycle it and use it over and over again. Early on, some states without a big oil and gas presence did all sorts of crazy stuff with it, such as salting roads. You would go to prison in any of the main production states if you did that.
The biggest problem with that water is that it is high in chlorides. Saltwater contamination is one of the worst pollutants around. It isn't toxic to humans, but it certainly is with plants. A saltwater spill is harder to clean up than an oil spill when on shore.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2014 - 03:00pm PT
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A major and unyielding drought in California is causing concern in the nation's "food basket," as farmers there say the U.S. food supply could be hit hard if the conditions in their state don't rapidly improve.
"This is the driest year in 100 years,” says grower Joe Del Bosque, expressing concern that the hundreds of workers he employs for each year's harvest could be without a job this season.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 2013 was the driest on record for most areas of California, "smashing previous record dry years" across the state, including regions where approximately half the fruits, vegetables and nuts in the U.S. are grown.
Those conditions have not relented as 2014 begins with most of the state experiencing official 'severe' or 'extreme drought' conditions.
Get ready for food prices to respond--and like The Chief says, ready to adapt.
Hey The Chief, can you go stick your finger in the lake again and comfort us, by telling us in your knowing way, that there is no drought.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 14, 2014 - 03:06pm PT
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^^^^which is being caused by pacific tectonic plate activities.. C'mon, Ron, you've declared this twice now -- back it up.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 14, 2014 - 03:15pm PT
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No it is not.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Jan 14, 2014 - 04:06pm PT
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Totally made sense. The current western drought being caused by tectonic activities makes no sense to me. But I'm curious whether anyone can figure out what Ron actually heard.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2014 - 05:00pm PT
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"Totally made sense."
So, these plates are moving so fast that they disrupt our weather patterns?
Yes, totally makes sense. Just like rick sumner makes sense.
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jan 14, 2014 - 08:12pm PT
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My well just got checked yesterday.... 106% and the feed rate is normal.
Right on queue, The Chief. Nice to know your finger is wet.
So now that's settled, there is no drought in California. Thanks for contributing The Chief.
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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Jan 14, 2014 - 08:30pm PT
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Dippity-sheete Warmist Models predicted floods.
Buzz!
Wrong again.
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dirtbag
climber
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Jan 14, 2014 - 08:32pm PT
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Oh hi Dave.
Don't fret, you're probably still among the top five fooking idiots here. You've got stiff competition, but I have faith your utter fooking stoopidity will shine through.
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