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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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This is a pretty good 2 pager (although necessarily tedious, given the topic) on methane produced by natural gas mining:
http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/02/methane-burned-vs-methane-leaked-frackings-impact-on-climate-change/
Some basic conclusions:
womb to tomb - natural gas is more environmentally friendly fuel that coal. That probably isn't news to anyone.
Our data for how much natural gas is leaked is spotty and could be more accurate
We can do better about preventing natural gas leaks, and there are proposed regulations and technologies to make that happen.
The statement comparing fracking leaks to the potential release of the ocean's methane hydrates is, as one would expect, several orders of magnitude out of whack.
By the way, misinformation is deliberate by definition. I've seen some stuff posted that wasn't correct - from everyone, including myself and base, but I haven't seen a deliberate attempt to misinform, here. Nor have a seen any herds scalping or being scalped or whatever, however compelling a visual that may conjure.
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karen roseme
Mountain climber
san diego
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 5, 2014 - 02:03pm PT
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Methane Hydrates carpet the worlds oceans.
No one knows what will happen for sure but the ocean is heating up!
"Regarding methane hydrates - it's like sea level rise - it depends on your time horizon. Go forward a century or more and it becomes an enormous, planet changing threat."
Geologically speaking one hundred years is nothing.
Yes, I brought it up because it is scary, that is the point!
Thanks for the book suggestions Coz. I have already read them.
People want to bury their heads in the sand and pretend global warming is not a runaway train,
We all want to go about our lives and not think about this stuff but it is happening.
"Stay focused. Stop Keystone. The destruction of the planet is happening incrementally. "
Actually the planet will not be destroyed but our species will.
Later, time to go climbing
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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Of course, one can be part of the solution AND work to stop Keystone at the same time. The fact that you burn gas in your car does not erode legitimacy for this kind of activism, even if the opposition tries to tell you that it does.
Stay focused. The opposition inevitably trots out words like 'hysteria' (nutjob!) and fear (coward!) in its attempt to marginalize. They are being abusive, plain and simple.
They will also attempt to play on your guilt because you don't live in a mud hut. Then they'll try to distract you with nukes, asteroids, pandemics - BIGGER THREATS - to try to trivialize your current campaign. Sound familiar?
It's standard Shout Down 101. An attempt to get you to do nothing - so the pipeline can be built. These are old tricks. Don't fall for them.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Oh Gawwwdd....
Please do not mistake Rick's comments as any sort of ringing endorsement on my part. We squabble over on the Climate Change thread.
I accept most of the climate science, not a popular place to be when you are in the oil business.
Perhaps you should ask me about ANWR some day. I've spent three summers alone in that place. It is like heaven.
Now that Napoleon is here, this thread will not be pleasant. Back to work, but I assure you that I am not blinded by the fossil fuel industry nor the Sierra Club.
Seriously, when the Chief shows up, threads go downhill quickly. He doesn't know a bull plug from a polished rod, but he will cut and paste from various blogs until the sun goes down, and long after.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Sorry, Tvash, to imply that the cost of environmental degradation (including climate change) is irrelevant. It is not. Neither is the human cost of mitigation of environmental degardation. My problem with the arguments presented in opposition to the pipeline at least two facets:
1. The arguments assume the pipeline is bad without sufficient analysis. Specifically, the arguments completely ignore the human cost of mitigation;
2. The arguments are intended to combat the extraction techniques in Canada, but they attack the optimal method of petroleum transport instead. The extracted hydrocarbons have a sufficient value that they are extracted and transported already, but by suboptimal means. Tvash correctly states the strategy: make the expected value of building future pipelines greater because of the noise opponents make. Pipelines remain the optimal mode of transport. If the petroleum is being extracted, refined and shipped anyway, why add to the cost and environmental degradation by forcing suboptimal transport methods?
I am amused by Tvash's comments about the economic impact of Carter year policies. The old joke is that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job and a depression is when you lose yours. I kept my job during the Carter years, but the stagflation, and, more importantly, decline in American optimism, and the general malaise was rather awful. It was no surprise to any but the left that Reagan stomped Carter in 1980.
Besides, I remember the cars produced under the Carter Administration as some of the worst ever. The one-size-fits-all energy-saving prescriptions were arrogant and absurd, but those in Washington, not having the same values, didn't care. I don't care to see any more of a repeat performance than what we've already experienced. Meanwhile, the peasants still want their bread.
John
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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While its fashionable to blame a president for everything - including the quality of Detroit's cars, there were, perhaps, other factors that drove the country into stagflation. The Vietnam War and Oil Cartel come to mind...
But back to the Loud Pipelines Kill Puppies thread
When analyzing a menu of strategic options, activists must weigh desired outcome, means available, risk, and cost. Stopping oil sands production entirely may be the best outcome - but the means available are scant and the risk of failure high.
So stopping the production of oil at the mine is infeasible.
Keystone is quite the opposite. The means are there and the risk of failure low enough (obviously, given 6 years of success so far). It doesn't stop oil sands production, but it is a harm reduction strategy - it bottlnecks to the logistical chain and therefore limits production that way.
Your assumption is that production will remain the same regardless of the efficiency and cost of the logistical chain.
It won't, of course. What will happen if Kestone goes through is that all the current transport methods will continue to be used, and Keystone will simply add less expensive capacity to that logistical chain. Oil sands production will increase accordingly. Anything beyond what is required for North American consumption will be exported.
It also alerts and educates the public to the larger issue of oil sands production and dependence on oil in general.
When viewed in this way, it was an excellent choice for a campaign that has been very successful so far.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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While its fashionable to blame a president for everything - including the quality of Detroit's cars, there were, perhaps, other factors that drove the country into stagflation. The Vietnam War and Oil Cartel comes to mind...
I'd be curious to know your reasoning for how either of the sources you cite led to stagflation, rather than the fiscal, monetary, regulatory and energy policies of the Carter Administration and the 95th and 96th Congress, but I have paying economic work to do for the rest of the day, so I'm signing off.
I do appreciate and understand your analysis of options available to activists, and it encourages me to read an analysis seeking an optimal, rather than an ideal, strategy for those with your viewpoint.
Carry on.
John
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Hoser
climber
vancouver
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What will happen is that all the current transport methods will continue to be used, and Keystone will simply add less expensive capacity.
Exactly, this argument that rail will cease is just not true.
They are trying to use a similar argument for LNG, if we export LNG we can remove coal from Chinas fuel source... It got so bad that our premier thinks we should get carbon credits for this while doubling our emissions here at home in order to produce the stuff...
The reality is that China will take our LNG, and their coal and just double down.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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China will also take our petcoke - a cheaper and dirtier power plant fuel than coal, and an otherwise useless byproduct of oil sands extraction.
And guess who is the chief petcoke peddler?
Koch Carbon.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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FWIW, and that isn't much, I've read Collapse and GG&Steel. Sorry, not familiar with Black Fish, other than last nights cooking disaster, perhaps.
That oil is the low hanging fruit of energy is a statement of the obvious. Economically, we'll continue to burn it until it runs out, then we'll burn every other dirty fuel available.
That's where public policy comes in. Humans are like bacteria - we'll eat everything around and sh#t in own beds doing it until the party's over. That's self interest, and that's an evolutionary trait. Ask any Mayan.
When long term survival is threatened, public policy needs to step in to counteract the self destruction that will occur naturally due to self interest. That's why we stockpile huge amounts of weapons - for that nuclear rainy day, so to speak. (that one may backfire, of course). And that's why we're now regulating coal fired power plants so heavily - even though it costs more to do so.
So, too, with climate. There is still huge denial going on (also an evolutionary trait, and perfectly natural), and the wealth concentrators continue to do their hording thing while externalizing the enormous environmental costs - natural behavior as well. Even when the damage isn't externalized, people still eat, drink, and smoke themselves to death. Hard to get your mitts around the long term, but that doesn't mean the damage isn't happening. If we could eat, drink, and smoke and have someone else take the health hit - well, you get the idea.
I think you'll find few here who would agree with you about my reading comprehension, but if such comments stroke an emotional need, by all means, stroke away. I'm all for increasing human happiness whenever possible.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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Tvash, that is a nice post. It should be obvious to those who follow these things that we, as a species, just aren't capable of looking very far into the future.
We have all sorts of problems. The solutions cost money, so we sweep these problems under the rug or turn them into strawmen on AM talk radio. It really is that simple.
You have to be very careful about what you search for on the internet, because somewhere, someone has articulated a position that you already agree with, even if it is false. There is a massive cottage industry of pundits out there who don't know their heads from their asses.
It is better to remain emotionally detached and work on problems rather than bitching back and forth.
So it is about focus, and our lack of it.
edit: You will never understand the geopolitical significance of oil until you read The Prize. I live and breathe the energy business every single day, and that book is a triumph. It isn't partisan. It is mainly historical. However by reminding us of history, we can see ourselves making the same mistakes over and over again.
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Tvash
climber
Seattle
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I've heard of the book. I'll check it out on your recommendation.
I definitely agree about the emotional detachment part, although I'm guilty as hell of being a bastid of an Irishman.
I don't think Keystone is anything more than an incremental milestone. It's not a solution - more a preventative measure. The solutions lie in efficiency and sustainable energy sources.
Short term
Modernizing the grid - from what I've read, $80B increases transmission efficiency by 20% - huge.
Building codes and tax breaks for low carbon or zero net carbon buildings and homes - huge opportunity.
Incentives to produce robot vehicles near term. The benefits of the widespread use of fully automated electric vehicles shared (Car2Go style) would be enormous - level loading of the grid, focus on more efficient power generation rather than trying make millions of vehicles more efficient, optimized use of roads, elimination of traffic jams and accidents.
Continue switching from coal to NG power generation.
Continued investment in wind and solar.
Long term -
Deep geothermal?
Fusion?
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Hoser
climber
vancouver
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I just dont understand why that (spills,destruction) is a bad idea for an argument. There are papers upon papers that discuss why climate change is not a viable argument for most folks to pay the true price of energy extraction.
They need an immediate consequence, one that affects them or their family in the not so distant future.
Thats why that excellent commercial was put out
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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karen roseme
Mountain climber
san diego
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 5, 2014 - 06:10pm PT
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Tvash,
"Humans are like bacteria - we'll eat everything around and sh#t in own beds doing it until the party's over. That's self interest, and that's an evolutionary trait."
" There is still huge denial going on (also an evolutionary trait, and perfectly natural), and the wealth concentrators continue to do their hording thing while externalizing the enormous environmental costs - natural behavior as well. Even when the damage isn't externalized, people still eat, drink, and smoke themselves to death. Hard to get your mitts around the long term, but that doesn't mean the damage isn't happening. If we could eat, drink, and smoke and have someone else take the health hit - well, you get the idea.
I think you'll find few here who would agree with you about my reading comprehension, but if such comments stroke an emotional need, by all means, stroke away. I'm all for increasing human happiness whenever possible."
I agree with this too Tvash,
"I don't think Keystone is anything more than an incremental milestone. It's not a solution - more a preventative measure. The solutions lie in efficiency and sustainable energy sources. "
The longer it gets delayed from being built, the more time it gives to come up with something else.
I will read The Prize too.
Thanks!
http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/no_keystone_xl/index.html
http://www.nrdc.org/energy/keystone-pipeline/
http://act.350.org/sign/kxl/
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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"Continue switching from coal to NG power generation.
Continued investment in wind and solar.
Long term -
Deep geothermal?
Fusion? "
Could not agree with you more,Tvash.
I have been accepted at Cornell's school of Environmental Engineering.
Having a 33 year old Geology degree,I am going to concentrate on Geothermal.
How I am going to pay for it is another hurdle.
The point being ,Alternatives are the way out of this.
Yes,Fort,we live in interesting times.
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karen roseme
Mountain climber
san diego
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 5, 2014 - 07:41pm PT
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This is part of a review of Collapse.
The book was very interesting. The movie was frightening.
One of the points that shines clearly from the pages of Diamond's book is that the more fragile the ecosystem in which a society is established, the more dependent it is on appropriate decision-making. Diamond recognizes that there are four basic areas in which decision-making fails:
* The failure to anticipate a problem before it arrives.
* The failure to perceive a problem when it has arrived.
* That having become aware of the problem, the failure to try and solve it.
* That they might set out to solve the problem -- but because of inadequate information, wrong approaches, etc., they fail.
In the category of failure to perceive a problem when it has arrived, Diamond comes up with two concepts that are particularly helpful. One is what he describes as "creeping normalcy" and the other is "landscape amnesia." The first is slow trends that get missed because they are concealed within noisy fluctuations so that year-to-year change is so gradual that we miss what actually is going on.
n the category of failure to perceive a problem when it has arrived, Diamond comes up with two concepts that are particularly helpful. One is what he describes as "creeping normalcy" and the other is "landscape amnesia." The first is slow trends that get missed because they are concealed within noisy fluctuations so that year-to-year change is so gradual that we miss what actually is going on.
Yet even if a society or culture has "anticipated, perceived, or tried to solve a problem, it may still fail for obvious possible reasons: the problem may be beyond our present capacity to solve, a solution may exist but be prohibitatively expensive, or our efforts may be too little and too late"
http://richardkew.blogspot.com/2005/06/review-of-jared-diamonds-book-collapse.html
If you do try you might fail. If you don't try you will fail!
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kunlun_shan
Mountain climber
SF, CA
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The petroleum coke waste from refining tar sands oil is very bad news. This toxic particulate has been blowing around Chicago and Detroit, from piles destined to be shipped to China and India.
http://rt.com/usa/koch-tar-waste-piles-chicago-285/
The substance made headlines earlier this year when a pet-coke pile that was three stories high and one block long created an ominous black cloud that floated over Detroit, Michigan. Citizens in nearby Windsor complained that they experienced respiratory problems and other ailments when the pet-coke infiltrated their water supply and floated through open windows....
...Each barrel of oil shipped from Canada produces between 60 and 130 lbs of pet-coke. That is then sent overseas and incinerated in electricity generators because the Environmental Protection Agency has stopped issuing permits for the burning of pet-coke inside the US.
The tar sands is currently producing 1.8 million barrels of oil/day, which works out to between 20 - 42 million tons of pet-coke per year.
Tar sands production is expected to reach 5.2 million barrels per day by 2030, mostly going to China.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I'm making a lot of my income off the future pipeline going to the coast through BC from the tarsands.
Right now about half of the new patients who come to my office each month are guys who work up north in oil/gas and keep their families down south. 3 weeks on, 1 off to spend with family. They walk in and put 25K on their CC for veneers, or just get everything for their families.
And they haven't even built the line yet. These guys are just doing the preliminary work for it - kinda nice having so much work that pays well for everyone.
But I really don't like the fact that we use oil and that it pollutes so much.
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karen roseme
Mountain climber
san diego
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Topic Author's Reply - Mar 6, 2014 - 09:56am PT
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Ken M,
Thanks for that.
Yergin concluded that he doesn’t share the “doom and gloom” view of other energy experts. “I see a history of adaptation and innovation,” when it comes to energy, he said. And while the U.S. is still at the forefront of research and creativity, the globalization of innovation is expanding the possibilities for countries like China and India to develop new technologies of their own."
The quest for “the security [and] availability of energy for a prosperous world” is a quest that “is as much about human spirit as it is about technology,” said Yergin. “It is a quest that will never end and it is a quest that should never end.”
” While the world is not going to run out of oil, Yergin expressed concern about above-ground political and economic risks. What’s certain, though, is that oil companies are continuing to explore alternative sources of energy and the price of solar power is coming down–and the face of energy in 2030 will look very different from today."
Even more reason to try and delay all the nasty stuff from being built!
kunlun_shan,
"The petroleum coke waste from refining tar sands oil is very bad news"
No sh#t, I had no idea...
The substance made headlines earlier this year when a pet-coke pile that was three stories high and one block long created an ominous black cloud that floated over Detroit, Michigan. Citizens in nearby Windsor complained that they experienced respiratory problems and other ailments when the pet-coke infiltrated their water supply and floated through open windows.... "
Read the article, very scary!
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