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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Original Post - Aug 28, 2015 - 07:44pm PT
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An interesting week.
Reilly & the Hedge-fund managers got a really bizarre stock market "CORRECTION." The major indexes all fell by more than 10% ----- then, instantly rebounded.
Most all stock-market pundits advised investors to "stay the course" & not sell.
Anyone have a long-term alternative to investing in U.S. stocks?
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Captain...or Skully
climber
Boise, ID or the fricken Bakken, variously
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Aug 28, 2015 - 08:00pm PT
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Heroin.
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Jan
Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
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Aug 28, 2015 - 08:03pm PT
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It's hard to know without Alan Greenspan there to say "irrational exuberance" a few hundred times before the crash.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Aug 28, 2015 - 08:10pm PT
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You can't defy gravity forever. Credit fueled expansion is always unsustainable in the end.
Me, I would be looking for a little spread in Idaho and rustle marmots for protein.
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Captain...or Skully
climber
Boise, ID or the fricken Bakken, variously
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Aug 28, 2015 - 08:12pm PT
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So, no heroin?
Aw man. ...I was SO looking forward to being a Kingpin. Meh.
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 28, 2015 - 08:15pm PT
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Rick! OMG! Marmots! I just have to develop a taste for them. I killed 27 on our 5 acre ranchette this summer.
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john hansen
climber
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Aug 28, 2015 - 08:46pm PT
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I just feel that the American economy is still strong. Oil is cheap, good for consumers, not so great for energy companies.
Not that it means much but even after the Dow went down 12 percent YTD at one point last week it was still 300 point above the fifty two week low from last October.
They say there has been a 10 percent correction on average once per year for the last 40 years. This was the first in 4 years.
There is so much innovation in technology going on right now .
Are Microsoft and Apple and Intel and Ford going to stop moving forward?
They have all kept going though any obstacles that came up.
ATT , United, Fed ex, Amazon,, somebody's got to do it.
There are always people ready to fill any opportunity.
If the USA is still around in five ,10 or 20 years, I think your average 401K would have gained quite a bit.
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Jan
Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
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Aug 28, 2015 - 08:52pm PT
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Yes, I should have mentioned that along with Greenspan's warnings, the price of oil started to climb, and that was the time to take heed. Not the same situation now.
As for 10, 15, or 20 years from now, the big question for most supertopians is will we still be around 10, 15, or 20 years from now? If only we knew how long we'd live, planning for retirement would be a whole lot easier.
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 28, 2015 - 09:00pm PT
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Jan: Re how long might we live?
My two-packs of un-filtered Camels per day father died at age 53, & here I am at nearly 66.
It is sooooo-hard to predict my death, but based on my mother's mother, who died at 96, I worry I may live that long----or more.
Thus we have been investing, with very good results, mainly in Vanguard mutual funds for -----a long run.
I will supply some more info in the morning.
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Jan
Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
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Aug 28, 2015 - 09:52pm PT
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I know this dilemma well as my mother is currently 92, living alone and still driving. Her mother lived to be 90, her mother's sister 92, and my mother's paternal family lived into their late 80's and early 90's clear back in the 1600's (I do genealogy), so I figure I'm in for the long haul also.
I put most of my retirement funds into annuities at age 68 and now I'm teaching online part time and putting more money away in an IRA that is wholly invested in stocks. I also bought a house I'm fixing up slowly which is in an area where housing values are sky rocketing. I deliberately bought a house that I would not become too attached to, so I could walk away with cash and rent or buy something smaller and cheaper later on. So far, that's my strategy.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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Aug 28, 2015 - 10:35pm PT
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Why is your portfolio invested wholly in stocks?
Diversify.
And if the stock market crashes, who's going to buy the house?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 28, 2015 - 11:01pm PT
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What was 'bizarre' about this long overdue correction? I called it six months
ago. It culled the weak willed and weak minded, but then most pronounced
swings are merely irrational stampedes. Stay the course and reap your just
rewards, my faithful, the US economy is fundamentally sound and healthy. It
is good advice to diversify, bonds will always bridge the peaks and valleys
of the equity high seas. And stock up on energy stocks, in two years you
will be laughing all the way to the bank, if not sooner.
My two picks for a good hoot: Ford and Boeing. The former's new Voodoo
flat crank V-8 is smoking hot and the latter's 777X will kick Airbus' azz.
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Jan
Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
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Aug 28, 2015 - 11:04pm PT
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My annuities are not invested in stocks at all, that's why I'm investing in stocks again in my IRA for long term growth now that I have a stable income from social security and annuities.
As for the house, if I can't sell it right away, I still have a place to live and am building equity and getting a tax write off on the interest and taxes. Given the shortage of housing in Colorado and the number of people moving into the Boulder area in particular, it's hard to imagine that anything short of another 1930's style depression would affect the real estate market here very much.
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DanaB
climber
CT
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Aug 29, 2015 - 06:13am PT
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Become a member of Congress. Great benefits, fantastic pension, you vote for your own raises.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Aug 29, 2015 - 06:27am PT
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High risk, high return stocks for you lad.....if your grandmother's longetivity is any indication.
I suggest you corner the market on rotary phones and then market them on Supertopo. The absolute reverence here for old, low function climbing gear indicates you might have a thriving business.
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 09:34am PT
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Here's a list of the Vanguard Funds we own shares in. Four are bond funds, 2 are mixed stock & bonds,& 5 are riskier all stock funds. Year to date returns range from -9.7% in the Energy Fund to + 16.78% in the Health Care fund.
We started investing in stocks in the 1980's and I've kept records of yearly gains (or losses) since 1996. In that time period, we've lost money in four years, with the worst being a -30.65% yearly loss in 2008, but we've made money in 15 of 19 years and are even up 3% so far this year.
Our average yearly gain over the last 19 years is +9.23%, which is far more than I can imagine making from any other legitimate investment.
I fully agree that the stock market is risky & can be a heart-breaker, but in the long-run, it makes money for those that do their homework & or invest in Vanguard Index funds.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 29, 2015 - 09:40am PT
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Ditch the so-called inflation-protected and Ginnie Maes and get into the Vanguard junk bonds.
Don't laugh, it has a stellar record.
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Aug 29, 2015 - 09:59am PT
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Fortunes have been made in the last week...
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Banquo
climber
Amerricka
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Aug 29, 2015 - 10:11am PT
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Stocks were on sale and I was buying. Year to date for the funds in one account:
Vanguard VTSAX -3.09%
Janus JNGLX 16.31%
T. Rowe Price PRHSX 17.38%
T. Rowe Price PRIDX 7.38%
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Fritz
Trad climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 29, 2015 - 12:22pm PT
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Reilly: I'll agree that the Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund is a dog, but we only have $100.00 in it currently.
I love the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund. Here's a link to a financial writer that does too. http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/06/17/vanguard-gnma-vfiix/
It doesn't return a huge yield, but it's about as safe as an investment can be.
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