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crøtch
climber
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Topic Author's Original Post - Aug 1, 2014 - 08:29am PT
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News reports indicate that 1 or 2 health workers infected with Ebola will be flown from Africa to the US to be treated at Emory University in Georgia.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/ebola-crisis-prompts-cdc-to-warn-against-nonessential-travel-to-west-africa/2014/07/31/7f132634-18ce-11e4-9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html
In the grand tradition of Supertopo, I'll render an opinion on a field in which I have zero expertise....
Given that health care workers account for approximately 10% of the 700 deaths in this recent outbreak it seems to me like a colossally bad idea to bring infected patients into contact with US healthcare workers on this continent who will presumably go home to their families at the end of the day. Perhaps I'm overreacting, but at the moment this horrendous disease outbreak is confined to a single continent. A few days from now it will be here on our shores. Is that really a good idea? Do we really want to bring infected US citizens home rather than setting up a field hospital in Africa to treat them?
from CDC
“This is the biggest and most complex Ebola outbreak in history. Far too many lives have been lost already,” said CDC Director Tom Frieden, M.D., M.P.H. “It will take many months, and it won’t be easy, but Ebola can be stopped. We know what needs to be done. CDC is surging our response, sending 50 additional disease control experts to the region in the next 30 days.”
CDC expects its efforts not only to help bring the current outbreak under control, but to leave behind stronger systems to prevent, detect and stop Ebola and other outbreaks before they spread.
In addition to warning travelers to avoid going to the region, CDC is also assisting with active screening and education efforts on the ground in West Africa to prevent sick travelers from getting on planes. On the remote possibility that they do, CDC has protocols in place to protect against further spread of disease. These include notification to CDC of ill passengers on a plane before arrival, investigation of ill travelers, and, if necessary, quarantine. CDC also provides guidance to airlines for managing ill passengers and crew and for disinfecting aircraft. Earlier this week, CDC issued a Health Alert Notice reminding U.S. healthcare workers of the importance of taking steps to prevent the spread of this virus, how to test and isolate suspected patients and how they can protect themselves from infection.
At this time, CDC and its partners at points of entry are not screening passengers traveling from the affected countries. It is important to note that Ebola is not contagious until symptoms appear, and that transmission is through direct contact of bodily fluids of an infected, symptomatic person or exposure to objects like needles that have been contaminated with infected secretions.
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crøtch
climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 1, 2014 - 08:32am PT
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Lolloooloooll Locker! heheheehehehehehe. I'm frigging LOLing here.
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crøtch
climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 1, 2014 - 08:39am PT
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Rack and rope are on the way. Don't mind the blood stains. They should come right off with a little bleach. BTW, do you put the rope in your mouth to clip? Maybe practice a new method for a few weeks.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Health care professionals who are going over there are like somebody soloing
Astroman, in a sleet storm. There are reports that it has a toehold, pardon
the climbing analogy, in Lagos, Nigeria. If that is true then it will be
game over for Africa, especially given the prevalent attitudes to it being
a form of witchcraft plus the reticence to cooperate with health care workers
because they are also seen as witches. I don't particularly fear it getting
established here. It is far more likely that it will get to Asia first,
and that would be very bad. It certainly is not unlikely that it could
get into the immigrant banlieues of Europe.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Headed to Atlanta? Seems like maybe the best place in the world to contain it? CDC is headquartered there I beleive.
What surprises me is that this is such a large outbreak compared to others I had heard of. Seems like it may be a more robust strain environmentally speaking than in the past. That is a scary thought.
Ebola has been hard to isolate in the wild. Years ago when I looked into it a little they did not know the source. Not sure if they do now. The reason for this is that in the past at least it is an extremely fragile virus that cannot survive airborne or for long outside the body.
Perhaps that is changing .. that would indeed be a terrifying mutation. A possible show stopper. As in possibly shutdown travel and economies worldwide and kill millions.
Tom Clancy wrote a plausible scenario regarding Ebola engineered as a WMD. The science and info in the story is quite good.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Michael Crichton's The Andromeda Strain might be more a propos.
As you note it wouldn't be a very good bio weapon due to its fragility.
The sad thing is that in Africa it is a weapon, of ignorance.
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crøtch
climber
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Topic Author's Reply - Aug 1, 2014 - 09:04am PT
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Yes, CDC is right there. My guess is that CDC is using this as an opportunity to test the leakiness of their BSL4 treatment capabilities looking for ways to tighten up their protocols.
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stevep
Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
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Ebola would be a pretty poor bio-weapon. No airborne transmission and too highly lethal. You want something more like smallpox.
And no, a couple infected people coming back under close clinical supervision doesn't worry me too much.
For those interested in this sort of thing who have a smartphone, there is a game called Plague that you can get that doesn't pretty good job of modeling how changing different variables(transmission vectors, symptoms, mortality, treatment) affects spread and mortality. If you can get past the somewhat grim concept, it's pretty interesting.
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overwatch
climber
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As long as you guys aren't worried...whew!
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sandstone conglomerate
climber
sharon conglomerate central
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In Richard Preston's Hot Zone, the Ebola virus was suspected of mutating into an airborne strain that infected the poor chimpanzees with something similar to influenza. They hadn't been in contact with one another, i.e. bodily fluid transmission, as they were kept seperated. Anyone else read that book?
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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I haven't listened to Alex Jones recently, but I'm sure its a lab brewed bio-war disease as is.... strategically planted in Africa to reduce the human population a-la the Bilderberg protocols..... or something like that. :)
Meanwhile my 80 year old mother is losing sleep over this. Keeps reminding me of the 50% die-off rate in the 14th century plague. But then when you are 80 there are lots of things to keep you awake.
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overwatch
climber
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Tioga
You definitely think outside the box ...if I drank I would have one with you
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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A bigger concern is the male from Stockton with anti-biotic resistant TB that escaped quarantine...
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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I actually know a lot about this field, and I have to say that I heartily agree with the OP on this.
One of the great defenses of our country, both against military and disease, are the vast oceans.
Moving a patient to Atlanta eliminates this huge advantage. Were I in charge, I would never have allowed this.
When talking about written accounts, by far the best is "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston. It is a factually REAL account of another ebola outbreak, which occurred in Reston, Virginia. By the absolute grace of God, it turned out to be a strain that did not cause disease in humans, although it did infect humans. It had a 100% mortality rate in monkeys, though. And it was apparently airborne.
When you read about the astonishing TRUE incompetence by the CDC and other authorities, who were the world's experts in this virus, the concept of bringing patients with the disease into the country frightens me.
You might also consider that this is the same CDC that was recently cited for their inexcusable handling of weapon-grade infective materials.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Sandstone, you are right about the books description.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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A bigger concern is the male from Stockton with anti-biotic resistant TB that escaped quarantine...
No. Tiny problem by comparison.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Ebola is not the ideal bioweapon. You actually would prefer a much lower fatality rate, but one which produced long term disability effects....sort of like polio.
You would prefer one that has a long incubation, during which the person can infect others....like influenza.
You would prefer one that infected by aerosol...like influenza....and some strains of Ebola.
So, this Ebola strain is not ideal....but it has potential. One must also be cautious about the concept that sometimes viruses change DURING an epidemic, becoming much more problematic.
Most worrisome: These Americans were professional healthcare workers, who presumably knew what they were doing.
So, how did they become infected?
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beaner
Social climber
Maine
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What surprises me is that this is such a large outbreak compared to others I had heard of. Seems like it may be a more robust strain environmentally speaking than in the past. That is a scary thought.
Other outbreaks occurred in rural villages and it was possible to quarantine an entire village. This time the outbreaks have also affected large cities, some with populations in the millions making it more difficult to contain. Still, it spreads rather slowly -- it has been in Conakry, Guinea (1.6-2 million people) for quite some time and has affected less than 100 people (that they know of).
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overwatch
climber
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Thanks a lot, ken m, I'm shitting my pants now.
Keep those immune systems boosted
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