Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
|
|
Topic Author's Original Post - Feb 8, 2007 - 12:15am PT
|
jstan mentioned statistics in a previous thread... a quick look (which I might do a little more research in later when I have some time, Friday evening?) uncovered the following for estimates.
The number of "rock climbers" in a year is a difficult number to determine. In 1994-1995 the USFS conducted one of its periodic "National Survey on Recreation and the Environment" in which they asked who had gone "rock climbing." The answer was answered positively for 7 million respondents (over the age of 15). This was reported in an interesting thesis: [url="http://faculty.weber.edu/tgrijalva/therese%20cavlovic%20dissertation.pdf"]Valuing the Loss in Access: An Institutional And Welfare Analysis of Rock Climbing on U.S. Public Lands[/url] by Therese Anne Cavlovic.
The Accidents in North American Mountaineering statistics for 1994 and 1995 can be averaged:
number of accidents: 163
number of people involved: 344
number injured: 133
number killed: 32
For all years, 61% of the accidents occured on rock. For the purpose of estimating, multiply the above numbers by 0.61 to get the numbers for rock climbing:
number of people involved: 210
number injured: 81
number killed: 20
This year was before the popularity of indoor climbing gyms, so lets assume that the people who said they were rock climbing actually did it outside. Further, I would assume a small fraction of foreign climbers compared to 7 million.
An estimate of the probability of being:
-in an accident 30 in a million,
-injured 12 in a million,
-killed 3 in a million.
How many times have you gone rock climbing? In 30 years, say you go climbing at the same rate as those did in 1994-1995.
...Then you have expected to have been involved in an accident about 0.1%, have an injury about 0.04% and been killed 0.009% in that time period.
Everytime you go out you roll the dice...
|
|
climbingjones
Trad climber
grass valley,ca
|
|
What isnt a roll of the dice? Nothing. I am not even going to mention the driving odds. The only thing that is safe is posting on this cozy forum. Unless Whitey starts flailing and hits you with some childish insult. And that can really do some damage.
Or what about the everpresent "Bushbot Brownshirt Neocon" blast?
That'll leave a mark.
Climbing is as safe as you make it.
I think...........................
|
|
WoodySt
Trad climber
Riverside
|
|
I seem to be an anomaly. It's got to be climbing with Locker.
|
|
Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 8, 2007 - 12:31am PT
|
assuming a 2 person party,
the accidents are reported when one is injured (80% of the reports)
or killed (20% of the reports)...
...Woody'd be an anomoly if the accidents were reported and made it to ANAM somehow... did you guys get written up ever?
|
|
spyork
Social climber
Land of Green Stretchy People
|
|
Ed,
What are the odds of being hit by gunfire when driving thru Oakland, CA?
I don't know, but my car got hit by a bullet last year, which missed my head by 1/4".
This stuff is all random, I figure I just need to live my life and let the dice fall where they may.
Steve
|
|
Todd Gordon
Trad climber
Joshua Tree, Cal
|
|
You'll never get out of this life alive........
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
Every time you go out you roll the dice.
Nope, never works like that. There is intelligence behind it and there is a controller. There are no accidents.
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
Not an excuse, you caused it.
|
|
Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
|
|
Thanks, Ed! This is really interesting stuff, though as you remark, climbing can ALWAYS kill or injure you. And, as was noted on another thread recently, just because you've done something 1,000 times safely, doesn't mean the 1,001st time is any less risky than the first time.
There doesn't seem to be a lot of reliable information on this topic. There was a report about it in one of the magazines about ten years ago, which I'll try to find.
There are some significant definition problems:
 What is a climber?
Distinguishing between the various subspecies of climbers and mountaineers, and their respective incident rates.
What is climbing?
My guess also is that a lot of accidents aren't reported, in AINAM or anywhere, and that the number of climber-days (climber-pitches? climber-mountains?) per year isn't well known. Whether it could or should be further sub-divided, e.g. by difficulty or type of environment is also a challenge.
I'll keep looking - somewhere I have copies of articles, or even links, about this.
|
|
Jaybro
Social climber
The West
|
|
yeah, but, how many times did each of those 7 million climb? is that 7 million people/days?
What is an inury?
what is an accident?
I have climbed over thirty years, a lot by some measures, but I suspect way less than 7 mil climber/days. Though I feel I am relatively pristine, all things considered, I have had both accidents and injuries, nothing that has kept me away from the crags for very long, though.
Am I a statistical anomally? I'm off the chart by those numbers above (too many accidents) but a lot of people who have climbed less than me are more banged up.
What really are the odds? how do we measure them? I haven't waded through the link and I'm looking for the clif notes, so excuse a possibly niave question. Has anyone done this sort of inquiry in some meaningful way, beyond the anecdotal?
are there numbers for soloists?
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
Well Chuckcar you said "It was meant to happen, there was nothing I could do about it."
You always have choices to make to do something about your life BEFORE the result.
You are the architect of your destiny.
|
|
Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 8, 2007 - 01:04am PT
|
The accidents reported in ANAM are "signficant" accidents, reported by the SAR team in the area that conducted the operation or by the team when self-rescue happened.
The thesis discusses what the definition of "climber" and "climbing" is... there may be "number of times" data in the report, but I didn't try hard to get a copy, yet.
While we all get banged up at the cliffs, we don't always report it. However, if it happens at a serious enough level, it is reported by someone.
This topic is nibbling around the issue raised concerning the probability of catastrophic failure of the climbing protection system... more later. This is just the baseline.
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
Now Chucky do you even read and think?
It might take you a few lifetimes before fully understand what I just told you above. It's not so simple as black and white for us to understand in one sitting as we do with our limited senses.
Good luck.
|
|
marky
climber
|
|
wbraun, do you try to be trite or is that just your shtick?
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
I'm telling the truth whether you understand or not.
You can accept it or reject it. It's up to you. I'm not here to try and change anyone. Only you can do that.
|
|
Greg Barnes
climber
|
|
Hey Ed, that fatal climbing accident at Sunny & Steep in Red Rocks a few years back (we were stuck on the highway getting back to the campground for over an hour as the helicopter staged off of the road) did not make it into ANAM. So I guess the local sheriff and/or BLM didn't report it. I would guess that a good number of real climbing accidents don't get reported.
|
|
Ksolem
Trad climber
LA, Ca
|
|
"..Nope, never works like that. There is intelligence behind it and there is a controller. There are no accidents. .."
Werner, this sounds so dogmatic. Show me the reason.
|
|
John Moosie
climber
|
|
"..Nope, never works like that. There is intelligence behind it and there is a controller. There are no accidents. .."
" Werner, this sounds so dogmatic. Show me the reason "
I will give this a shot.
It is based on the understanding that everything is interconnected, everything is God. Therefore there are no coincidences or accidents. You draw into your life those experiences you need based on Karma. I don't really understand where rockfall fits into this except to understand that it is balancing some action in your past. This action may not have occured in this lifetime. It may have occured in a previous lifetime.
That is basically how I understand it.
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
Very good John.
|
|
John Moosie
climber
|
|
Thanks Werner. These are new concepts for me as I was raised strict southern Babtist. I like my current teacher. Things are making a lot more sense to me. I still get the willies when I try to get my mind around a new concept, but that is easing up. Those teachings that you will burn in hell for eternity were driven into me.
" Wow, that's harsh "
No more harsh then Gravity. Just a law to live by. Without gravity, there would be no purpose in climbing. If you open yourself up to understanding Karma then life becomes a lot easier. You end up working with it instead of against it and then you can " go with the flow ".
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!