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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Feb 17, 2014 - 10:35am PT
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Bravo to #1. Now if we only had a few million more of him in all walks of life we could turn the scientists and political machine behind this crock of shet around to more productive outlets for their obsessions.
Where are you HSRV?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Feb 17, 2014 - 10:43am PT
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"If we only had a few million more of him".
And you blame US for being alarmist, catastrophist,utopians.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 17, 2014 - 10:50am PT
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Meanwhile back in reality, although January was cold in many parts of the US it was not so cold globally. NASA just published the January global temperature anomaly. Here are the 10 warmest Januaries in their record going back to 1880. What do these years have in common?
rank, year, gistemp
10, 2004, .56
9, 2009, .57
8, 1998, .60
7, 2013, .63
6, 2010, .66
5, 2005, .69
4, 2014, .70
3, 2003, .72
2, 2002, .72
1, 2007, .93
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 17, 2014 - 10:55am PT
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At the American Association for the Advancement of Science meetings in Chicago last week, Jennifer Francis (Rutgers U) presented new work on the shifting jet stream that has brought so much recent weather. I haven't seen her paper yet but BBC has a straight report.
The main system that helps determine the weather over Northern Europe and North America may be changing, research suggests.
The study shows that the so-called jet stream has increasingly taken a longer, meandering path.
This has resulted in weather remaining the same for more prolonged periods.
The work was presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Chicago.
The observation could be as a result of the recent warming of the Arctic. Temperatures there have been rising two to three times faster than the rest of the globe.
....
The jet stream, as its name suggests, is a high-speed air current in the atmosphere that brings with it the weather.
It is fuelled partly by the temperature differential between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes.
If the differential is large then the jet stream speeds up, and like a river flowing down a steep hill, it ploughs through any obstacles - such as areas of high pressure that might be in its way.
If the temperature differential reduces because of a warming Arctic then the jet stream weakens and, again, like a river on a flat bed, it will meander every time it comes across an obstacle.
This results in weather patterns tending to becoming stuck over areas for weeks on end. It also drives cold weather further south and warm weather further north. Examples of the latter are Alaska and parts of Scandinavia, which have had exceptionally warm conditions this winter. The idea is fairly new and controversial among scientists, so it will be closely studied.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Feb 17, 2014 - 11:12am PT
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What do these numbers all have in common, Chiloe asks.
Well, after adjustment they all show little increase, actually a flat trend over the last 15 years. Additionally they show the Earth has warmed little since the lower than average temps of the LIA. They also show that Larry needs to find another cause to champion, hopefully something of value to society at large.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 17, 2014 - 11:41am PT
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Well, after adjustment they all show little increase, actually a flat trend over the last 15 years. False. GISTEMP shows significant warming over the past 15 years, as does every other index except RSS (and why RSS does not has been discussed upthread). What appears to be the best index, Cowtan & Way -- which combines Arctic coverage (like GISTEMP but arguably better) with di-biased sea surface temperatures (like HadCRUT4) -- shows the steepest trend over this period.
Additionally they show the Earth has warmed little since the lower than average temps of the LIA. Where did you get that? The Earth, or at least the Northern Hemisphere, has warmed substantially since the Little Ice Age according to any data I know of. Or just ask your local glaciers.
This image is a comparison of 10 different published reconstructions of mean temperature changes during the last 2000 years. More recent reconstructions are plotted towards the front and in redder colors, older reconstructions appear towards the back and in bluer colors. An instrumental history of temperature is also shown in black. The medieval warm period and little ice age are labeled at roughly the times when they are historically believed to occur, though it is still disputed whether these were truly global or only regional events. The single, unsmoothed annual value for 2004 is also shown for comparison. (Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png shows how 2004 relates to other recent years). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 17, 2014 - 11:56am PT
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I don't think anyone refutes the fact that global temperatures warmed to modern era highs in the 90s. It's what's happened in this century that's causing a lot of skepticism. No, that's just the current denial argument. Before this one we had "urban heat islands" or "uncertainty" or "clouds will save us" or "why isn't ocean heat content rising?" or "the satellites and radiosondes don't agree with the surface temperatures." Each of these (often incompatible) points of denial were being pushed by the same folks, including the most prominent denialists in science, who today are all about the "hiatus." So the hiatus might be their current argument but it's certainly not the source of their beliefs.
The problem I have with a lot of the experts is they won't even acknowledge the "hiatus" or they've come up with new rationalizations to discount it. You haven't tried to read or understand any of these experts, so far as I can see. There's a lot of new research on this topic, much of it discussed on this thread. You can't read that research or do the math yourself, so you dismiss it as "rationalization" based only on your politics. Or in a particularly dumb post you wink-wink nudge-nudged about it, which would sound clever only on a blog where nobody else could read the paper or do the math either.
Back in the 90s, were any of the experts predicting a pause? You mean, were they predicting an unusually prolonged La Nina state combined with the lowest solar max in generations? No, I don't think anyone foresaw that. The models attempt to forecast what their physical basis implied would happen if ENSO, solar and other forcings stayed "average" on multi-decade timescales.
One thing to note is that what you see in most of the model-run graphics are averages across many runs. Individual runs could be widely different, and some of them do show pause behavior. We've only got one Earth so we can't average what it would do over a hundred experiments from similar starting conditions.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Feb 17, 2014 - 12:11pm PT
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If we reached today's warming level in the 90's, why was 1999 so cold?
The answer: variation.
The result: We did not reach today's warming level in the 90's.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Feb 17, 2014 - 12:15pm PT
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 17, 2014 - 12:21pm PT
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Thanks for making my point. I did not make your point, but go ahead and try to make it yourself. Put together whole sentences into a paragraph. Can you do that?
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Feb 17, 2014 - 12:44pm PT
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Then you claimed I "haven't tried to read or understand any of these experts". Nothing like a good ad hom. Prove I'm wrong.
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 17, 2014 - 12:48pm PT
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Again EDH, keep posting all them "Prediction" papers that your DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT, STATE and FEDERAL, of late, have totally IGNORED.
WHY?
Actually, Obama has recently said that climate change is one of the major problems of our time.
Dimwits like you and right wing know nothings in Congress get in the way.
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 17, 2014 - 12:57pm PT
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Fact is, they, the current DEMO government, IGNORED all them supposed CC Models. They did not BELIEVE them. More like just plain incompetent and complete bullshet.
Prove it.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Feb 17, 2014 - 01:01pm PT
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coward
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 17, 2014 - 01:02pm PT
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LOL...
Prove the models, whichever models you were talking about, were ignored.
Prove it.
Edit:
Norton nails it succinctly.
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 17, 2014 - 01:09pm PT
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You're changing the topic #1.
Fact is, they, the current DEMO government, IGNORED all them supposed CC Models. They did not BELIEVE them. More like just plain incompetent and complete bullshet.
This is what you said.
Prove it.
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 17, 2014 - 01:11pm PT
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Do you know the models were ignored? Or not believed?
Show the money!
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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Feb 17, 2014 - 01:13pm PT
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my goodness, chief
you really do believe that one man, a US President. has the power to create snow melt to keep the water tanks nice and full
he walks on water, eh?
gee, I have a pot hole in my street, how come Obama hasn't come here and filled it yet?
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dirtbag
climber
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Feb 17, 2014 - 01:13pm PT
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Yes, we know reservoirs are dry. Posting photos over and over again do not demonstrate your point. As far as I know Brown and Obama do not know how to do effective rain dances.
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