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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Obviously you Scientism & Spirit ignorant freaks will NOT get it.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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nice VINCENT
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Norton
Social climber
the Wastelands
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one of the reasons Sochi was chosen for the winter games is because it has massive snow making infrastructure
I mean, just in case...
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WBraun
climber
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That looks like a pussy downhill course.
WTF ????
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Feb 7, 2014 - 02:28pm PT
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Sketch, you have set yourself up as a critic of science, but who has no understanding of science.
While you are certainly entitled to an opinion (to paraphrase the Rolling Stones, "you're no schoolboy but you know what you like") it isn't informed. You're criticism has no basis, and is largely an expression of your ignorance. That is an ignorance that you seem to hold onto as if it were something precious.
Most folks when exposed like this would, with tail between their legs, wither away and be like noisy children are asked to be: seen but not heard.
Sketch, you have set yourself up as a critic of science, but who has no understanding of science.
Sketch, do you understand what Ed is saying here? I sure do.
But carry the torch Sketch, archers need targets at which they can draw bows and shoot. And what's great about you is that you provide a target with an enlarged bulls eye.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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I posted a note earlier about Judith Curry's brief letter published in Nature Geoscience. It has no original data or analysis and does not try to synthesize, review or critique the literature beyond some general comments about Cowtan & Way (2013). The message is political, "Uncertainty ... therefore do nothing!" Meanwhile the Cowtan & Way (2013) approach seems to be gaining traction among active researchers. C&W have published an updated version of their kriged dataset, with the hybrid version promised soon, and new work in progress making a detailed comparison with GISTEMP (among the traditional temperature time series, the one that previously did the best job with the Arctic, and apparently comes closest to Cowtan & Way's results).
In my note I observed that Curry's statement of no significant warming since 1998 in the HadCRUT4 data does not seem to be true. In fact, four of the five main temperature indexes (plus Cowtan & Way) show significant warming over that period; the outlier is RSS which may be wrong.
UAH updated their published time series today, so I used that to check out another statement that puzzled me in Curry's letter. She wrote,
Gap filling in the Arctic through kriging or the extrapolation method used by NASA GISTEMP is, however, complicated by the presence of land, open water and temporally varying sea ice extent, because each surface type has a distinctly different amplitude and phasing of the annual cycle of surface temperature. Notably, the surface temperature of sea ice remains flat during the sea ice melt period roughly between June and September, whereas land surface warming peaks around July 1. Hence using land temperatures to infer ocean or sea ice temperatures can incur significant biases. No citation is given, or evidence about how much this Arctic land vs. ocean bias matters. It sounds like the implication would be that since Arctic land warms faster than water, and we rely on land-based weather stations, this will introduce a warm bias (exaggerated warming) in the conclusions GISTEMP or Cowtan & Way draw about the Arctic.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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raymond phule
climber
Feb 6, 2014 - 11:53pm PT
Anyway, I don't know much about intuition being the "next frontier" as a study but I'd love to find out. In a nutshell my understanding is that quality of intuition is intrinsically linked to a persons depth of experience, If this is true it explains the poor application and assumptions by the deniers.
**Thinking fast and slow by Kahneman discuss intuition quite a lot.
What you write above seems correct. Experienced people can unconsciously draw very good conclusions from the information they receive.
Laymen on the other hand often came to completely wrong conclusions based on their intuition.**
Thinking Fast and Slow was a good read, at least to me. While Phule's summary of Kahneman isn't really wrong, it certainly could be misleading. For instance, Kahneman also writes about so-called "experts" such as (often extremely highly paid) financial traders (i.e., stock pickers) that, in fact, do no better than chance. They are regarded as "experts" by the public and undoubtedly do know something or other about the way markets work.
But their predictions are still junk. And I'd guess that these financial "experts" have quite a bit of intuition.
If you're interested in Kahneman, you may also be interested in the writings of his friend and colleague, the esteemed author and public thinker Nassim Taleb.
Taleb does have something to say about climate models, which I've posted earlier in this thread (complete with page cites to The Black Swan): he thinks they are a fool's errand.
(In fairness, and as I noted before, it is not accurate to say that Taleb said anything about not believing in climate change and man's contribution thereto--his comments were strictly directed at climate models, and it's entirely possible that he's wrong on that particular example of problems with modeling extremely complex systems. It wasn't a central part of his book.)
I was attacked (as was Taleb) when I wrote this earlier, and I'm not even saying Taleb's right--my "intuition" is that climate modelers, given sufficient resources, likely can make useful predictions. I just wanted to point out that a well-respected, leading public intellectual used climate models to illustrate what he sees as fundamental problems in modeling complex systems.
The venom against Taleb on this site was really interesting to see--like the guy or not, he's very well respected by people whose reputations are beyond reproach--I'm not asking anyone to take my word that Taleb has some interesting things to say.
Here's what Kaheneman has to say about Taleb (taken from Wikipedia):
The Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman proposed the inclusion of Taleb's name among the world's top intellectuals, saying "Taleb has changed the way many people think about uncertainty, particularly in the financial markets. His book, The Black Swan, is an original and audacious analysis of the ways in which humans try to make sense of unexpected events."
A final Taleb anecdote:
I think of one of Taleb's sayings whenever Chole drones on about the Dunning–Kruger effect:
"The perfect sucker understands that pigs can stare at pearls but doesn't realize he can be in an analog situation."
From The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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If Curry's implication were true, then we could expect a steeper warming trend over Arctic land than over Arctic ocean. Here's where the satellite-based UAH temperature index comes in: they provide separate estimates for lower-troposphere temperatures above northern land and oceans. The results are opposite to what I expected, based on Curry's statement. Whether taking the whole satellite record or cherry-picking 1998 as a start date, Arctic ocean temperatures have risen faster than land.
12/1978 to 1/2014, 60N to 85N latitude land trend +.41 C/decade
12/1978 to 1/2014, 60N to 85N latitude ocean trend +.50 C/decade
1/1998 to 1/2014, 60N to 85N latitude land trend +.32 C/decade
1/1998 to 1/2014, 60N to 85N latitude ocean trend +.42 C/decade
Does that suggest the mainly land-based GISTEMP has been under estimating Arctic warming?
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Looks like Chiloe's going into filibuster mode again
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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TGT--yeah all that record ice is potent evidence of global warming! Remember, the super cold air that's freezing the ice came from someplace else, and when you net it out, it's hotter than ever.
Or if you don't fancy that one, how's this: the seemingly record ice is actually a microscopically thin layer that, when you consider the volume, may amount to something like what you could fit into a Big Gulp cup!
I'm sure the infinitely creative warmists can come up with dozens more explanations of why something that superficially seems to suggest things are getting colder in fact shows they're getting warmer than in Al Gore's most fevered dreams.
"The worse, the better"--attributed to Vladimir Lenin.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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They used to drive f-250's out on Lake Erie,to ice fish.
Do you think they are right now?
And Superior and Ontario would skin over in the 60's and 70's.
But you are right.
I am the one who is projecting.
Bruce,I do not think the Cornell psychologists even considered "intuitive deniers".But ,....maybe.Edit;They must have.
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Elcapinyoazz
Social climber
Joshua Tree
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it's just sad to see coming from her.
Even sadder for those of us who are alumni of the great institution that employs this fraudulent quack. Every time they solicit donations, I tell them as long as Curry is there, they'll see no cash from me.
At least the engineering schools are still well respected and highly ranked, at least in my field (CE). Curry's doing a pretty bang-up job of destroying 130 years of reputation building.
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Wade Icey
Trad climber
www.alohashirtrescue.com
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Below is an updated graph by the great Dr. Roy Spencer,
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Why Ed, do your plots differ so radically from the commonly accepted plots showing deviation between models and observations beyond the 5-75 and even 5-95% range of uncertainty. Doesn't newly adjusted observational data, and perhaps adjustment based upon Cowtan and Way, have anything to do with your plots near centering within the range of uncertainty. Dishonesty no, it's not your data, but neither does it seem to jive with usage of older data, say prior to major adjustments in 2012-2013. And what is '
"average of all models"- is this different from that represented in IPCC AR5? Finally, why is antarctic ice increasing, arctic ice recently increasing, the majority of the northern hemisphere suffering severe winters for the last 6 years, record late start to spring in the mid to high lattitudes of the NH in 2013, new all time record low temps of -96.3f and -135.7 in the arctic and antarctic recorded in 2013, Temps in AK decreasing an average of 2.4f over the last 13 years, north america cooling over the last 90 years, the great lakes icing over to historic proportions, snow in parts of Asia and the middle east for the first time in over a 100 years, hundreds of thousands of livestock and hundreds of people killed in South American cold snaps of historic proportions, RSS showing declining global temps for 17 years. Why Ed, why are all these anomalies pointing to cooling if the warming continues unabated as your plot shows? Are IPCC, the Met Office, RSS, UAH, Kevin Trenberth and a majority of the AGW community, all wrong in acknowledgement of "The Pause"?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Rick,Show one source that has shown a decrease of average global temperature.
We know where you get your "facts".
And Rick,What do you think you are telling people here when you get any news from a financial rag?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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1 out of 3 opinions from some guy in England is not bad,Chef.
Looks like you guys have a solid case there.
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