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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 15, 2013 - 11:46am PT
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Excellent presentation Chiloe, but you forgot the under ballyhooed solar amplification effects caused by large variations in UV radiation, reduced solar magnetism and increased aerosols from cloud nucleation seeds, reduced solar wind speed and coronal mass ejections, etc. etc. Svaalgard was the one solar scientist i knew was there. He is calling for a prolonged reduction of solar activity over the next cycles, just like many, many other solar scientists. He seems to indicate an even deeper minimum for the 23/24 low than others estimated. No wonder there was a distinct dip in the global temp anomaly during the 2008-2009 solar low. You are sounding downright reasonable Larry in the assessment that the transition to a colder global climate you called "The Pause" has roots in natural mechanisms. Keep up the good work brother!
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dec 15, 2013 - 11:49am PT
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The current TSI cycle is considered to be near it's maximum. That's why it's unusual, as it's much lower then most of the recent cycles.
The high of the last cycle occurred during the 'pause', so it has little effect on temps.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 15, 2013 - 11:51am PT
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No shet Sherlock.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 15, 2013 - 11:54am PT
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We can build statistical models that take all four factors into account (per L&R/F&R). The graph below compares observed (NOAA) and model-predicted surface temperatures, using an ultra-simple model with this form:
y[t] = b0 + b1x1[t-1] + b2x2[t-1] + b3x3[t–1] + b4x4[t-1] + u[t]
where
y[t] is the global surface temperature anomaly for time (month) t.
x1 to x4 are four predictors: AOD, TSI, ENSO, CO2.
u[t] represents the disturbance at time t, which is related to the lag-1 disturbance (u[t-1]) and to lag-1 and time t random errors (e[t-1] and e[t]):
u[t] = ru[t-1] + pe[t-1] + e[t]
All this reads better with Greek letters and subscripts, which I use in the book but haven’t tried to reproduce here.
Coefficients (b1-b4) on all four predictors, and (r and p) on the autoregressive and moving-average terms, are statistically significant. This model explains 77% of the variance in monthly surface temperatures Feb 1980 through Dec 2010 (the data available when I ran this analysis a couple of years ago). Unadjusted TSI has a modest but statistically significant net effect on global surface temperature: about 0.061 degrees per w/m^2 of TSI.
As you will have guessed if you followed this discussion, running the same model using Svalgaard’s adjusted TSI instead of TSI PMOD leads to similar results -- identical, in fact, to three decimal places: the solar effect is still 0.061 degrees per w/m^2 of TSI. A graph would be visually indistinguishable from the one above. The strongest effect in either model comes from the CO2 index. Second-strongest is multivariate ENSO. TSI (adjusted or not) comes in third.
Besides its robust and interpretable results (which are broadly consistent with physical models that take weeks to run on a supercomputer), this simplified statistical approach has the fine quality that anyone who knows ARMAX regression can brew it on their own desktop computer. Change anything you think should be changed, and see for yourself just what happens!
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WBraun
climber
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Dec 15, 2013 - 12:00pm PT
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Take a vacation Bruce.
You're obsessed and possessed ......
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Dec 15, 2013 - 12:02pm PT
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Wait a sec. TSI is currently at a maximum point in it's period? But much lower than normal maximum?
I generally stay out of this thread so I am a bit behind I suppose.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Dec 15, 2013 - 12:09pm PT
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TSI is currently at a maximum point in it's period? But much lower than normal maximum?
Yes, Svalgaard has said something to the effect that no one alive today has experienced such a low solar maximum. As I understand it, recent historical variations in TSI may have a relatively weak direct effect on climate -- as suggested by the model above. They could act as an external driver, however, that kicks off greenhouse feedbacks which magnify the indirect impact on climate.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Dec 15, 2013 - 12:10pm PT
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Thanks Chiloe. This thread just became very informative.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Dec 15, 2013 - 03:01pm PT
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Good posts Ed and Chiloe! Getting down to fewer and smaller bones to pick. Mainly overvalues of co2 sensitivity and undervalues in solar modulations and the still not completely understood amplifiers
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 15, 2013 - 05:41pm PT
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Sketch,you started that set of snow maps at 2003.The NOAA has those maps dating far further back than that.
Why are you starting at 2003?
Do you really think that set tells any real story,when you could go back ,way further and tell a completely different story.
Picking data ,taking it out of context with the undeniable truth of the full story,Aye?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Dec 15, 2013 - 08:11pm PT
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Sketch,I have used that [snow coverage maps] information for years as a tool for BC skiing,probably since I have owned a computer.
For some reason,I swear,one could go back and study maps from the 80's.I will agree ,you can not access that now.
I am going to find out why.
But ,whilst it is still Fall,our biggest snows[see lake effect] always occurred BEFORE the solstice.
The reason being Lake Erie and Lake Ontario would stay open[ice free] for that period roughly,and the active lake effect storms/squalls[as what is happening right now here]would energize.
Once the lakes would freeze the storms could not pick up enough moisture to proceed.
edit;the undeniable truth is ,it used to snow alot more during this period in just my lifetime.I will post up.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Dec 15, 2013 - 08:17pm PT
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Sketch even if we accept your "disproof"
Did you notice that even your disproof is showing a continuous increase in global temperature?
SO you wish to argue the rate of change. Fine.. Just for shits and giggles I'll concede you your point.
From my point of view (based completely on your post) I'll just thank god maybe there is still a chance we have more time to stop millions of people from being hurt needlessly by AGW.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dec 15, 2013 - 09:18pm PT
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Dec 15, 2013 - 09:22pm PT
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Sketch .. cmon man.. the one you just posted. I really did read it.
Here is the most pertinent part of the article you posted.
-------
Dr. James Hansen is the Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Dr. Hansen is right up there with Al Gore, Michael Mann and the Climategate CRU on the list of people helping the UN to swindle the United States and other western democracies out of trillions of dollars through his promotion of the Anthropogenic Global Warming fraud.
So, according to Hansen’s 1988 predictions, the global temperature anomaly should be about 90% of the way from Scenario “C” to Scenario “A”… ~0.97°C. In reality, the global temperature anomaly is about half of what Hansen predicted for a similar rise in greenhouse gases.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dec 15, 2013 - 09:35pm PT
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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Dec 15, 2013 - 10:18pm PT
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crunch
Social climber
CO
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Dec 16, 2013 - 12:26pm PT
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Hey igster, that is a very well written article. Thanks.
Quote:
"And once you concede the existence of the greenhouse effect, it’s tough to dispute the role of greenhouse gas emissions in warming the planet....
So here’s what’s clear: Over the longer term, temperatures will increase."
Discussed climate change yesterday with someone from one of the local gov't labs. He commented that the whole debate is shifting away from Al-Gore-style (or WattsUpWithThat-style) sweeping grand statements to to one of pragmatic planning for the next few years.
As an example, the Western Governors Association, faced with urgent questions over recent droughts and obviously changing snowpack levels and times, are asking scientists for help with forecasting just a year or two or three ahead. Better forecasts are worth a lot of money for ranchers and farmers who can see changes happening and want some idea of where things are going.
So, some funding for climate change research is now starting to come from individual states in the Western US.
http://www.westgov.org/initiatives/climate
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Reeotch
climber
4 Corners Area
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Dec 16, 2013 - 01:27pm PT
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Thanks for that Ed, I'm going to incorporate that into my biology classes . . .
P.S. Statistics, not calculus, should be taught in high school.
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