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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Oct 23, 2013 - 12:01pm PT
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hahaaa... dip sh#t chuff nuts STILL doesn't know the first thing about trend analysis... not even the simplest case of a linear regression. You'd think after pouring that much of his personal time into this thread he would at LEAST learn the very basics about what he pretends to understand. Oh well, such is the life of a delusional idiot.
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 23, 2013 - 12:04pm PT
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A whole different picture.
Thats funny, the chief is really an caricature of a stupid denier. He take the denier arguments to the extreme.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Oct 23, 2013 - 12:20pm PT
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fwoooom... Ed's post went WAY over chuff's head.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Oct 23, 2013 - 12:31pm PT
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Pathetic-the doomists have to resort to clinging to Arctic ice bergs of days past, stubbornly pointing to short term trends. If you guys would look at historical accounts you'd plainly see the major fluctuations in Arctic sea ice extent over the last thousand years exceeded this modest retreat of the last thirty years. What conditions do you think allowed the Thule's to settle a 5000 km swath of Arctic from Ak to Greenland in lightning speed and the Vikings to colonize Greenland, both about 1000 a.d. Hell, there were claims of rapid ice melt and open NW passage in the early 1920's and you all saw the pictures of the Skraeling surfaced on an ice free north pole. You lost your smoothed over MWP, your climate sensitivity estimate is trending downwards, weather events attribution to AGW has been abandoned, now give up your miserable melting ice bergs and sink into well deserved oblivion.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Oct 23, 2013 - 12:57pm PT
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Chuff wrote:
A whole different picture.
sure, if you are delusional
There's no way you draw the line like this unless you are simply trying to make a case for something based in no facts and one that comes from a personal agenda.
Worth Repeating:
The Chief, put the crayons down and step away from the terminal...
you are certainly nothing if not aggressively stupid when it comes to quantitative issues.
Worth Repeating:
hahaaa... dip sh#t chuff nuts STILL doesn't know the first thing about trend analysis... not even the simplest case of a linear regression.
Worth Repeating:
roflmao!
Sketch and The Chief should pool their neurons.
This might be the best one yet to show how totally retarded you are on this subject.
MSU, right?
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Oct 23, 2013 - 01:00pm PT
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IF the graph was flipped we all know how you would draw your line.
Whatever is best for your case, right?
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Oct 23, 2013 - 01:17pm PT
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Apparently chuff nuts thinks all those trend lines are just drawn between two arbitrarily chosen end points? The level of stupidity these people retain is astounding.
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 23, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
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Haha, the chief does it again. This time with an anecdote and figures that disprove his claim (and that he of course not understand).
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raymond phule
climber
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Oct 23, 2013 - 01:40pm PT
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Again, ANYONE that has spent at least 3-4 Geo Seasons down on the ICE would fully understand this reality.
But the information in the figures you posted seem to contradict what you say? The mean is higher for oktober than for november and the anomaly can obviously not give any information about when the ice start to melt.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 23, 2013 - 01:43pm PT
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It's possible that he used a least-squares, or a chi-squared method. You might criticize him for this, as these methods are known to weight outlier points more heavily, he could have used the more "robust" fitting technique using least-difference methods. My guess is that these would result in the same thing.
As Ed and others recognized that's an OLS regression line in my graph, yielding a negative slope of about 37,000 km^2/year.
Ed's suggestion of robust regression (to reduce possible influence from y-outliers) is reasonable, and his guess about what would result is correct. If instead of OLS I fit a robust regression line (Huber/biweight tuned to 95% Gaussian efficiency) I get ... a negative slope of about 37,000 km^2/year.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Oct 23, 2013 - 01:50pm PT
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Or... you could just choose different end points and hand draw a line that ignores everything in between...
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 23, 2013 - 02:00pm PT
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Chief, you have absolutely no clue.
If I use only data from Jan 1 1979 to Jan 1 2013, the trend is actually a bit steeper: decline of 41,000 km^2/year.
And if you're going to photoshop fraudulent versions of my graphs, write in your own name in place of mine.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 23, 2013 - 02:20pm PT
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Please just do so.
I already did, and told you the result.
By the way, that was NATURE's work.
Looks to me like you're the one who posted this fake. Take it down or write your own name in place of mine.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Oct 23, 2013 - 02:35pm PT
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Chiloe, I posted this one:
after the Chuff crayoned in his new end point. I can remove mine if you like.
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=970221&msg=2254913#msg2254913
Chiloe, why not just utilize the same data points of JAN for start to finish, 1979 to 2012.
It's called statistics and there are methods used that are accepted.
Jeeezus.... that you even ask that question shows just how clueless you are about this entire subject.
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mechrist
Gym climber
South of Heaven
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Oct 23, 2013 - 02:43pm PT
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damn, it must suck to be dumb.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 23, 2013 - 02:51pm PT
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damn, it must suck to be dumb.
I'm curious to see if other innumerates are gonna back him on this one, or if they sense something's wrong.
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Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
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Oct 23, 2013 - 02:56pm PT
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Show a glimmer of intelligence first. Everyone is laughing at you but some have clearly explained why. Can you find those explanations, read a few, and think for just a minute? Your "gotcha" has trapped only you.
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