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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:35pm PT
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Likely left later than 3 AM. My hunch is he got up early, checked his cell for messages at 2:50 and turned it off. Had a bite to eat, packed for the day and left camp. Whether or not to a pre-arranged ride I can't guess.
So he's ready to go by 4 AM?
I also guess that's about the time Mammoth Mt maintenance personnel head up to work. He'd been there long enough to figure out the early morning traffic patterns.
This hypothesis fits a reasonable time line.
If you haven't read Matt's journal from 2006 it's illuminating.
Matt didn't ever stop taking big hikes and climbs. Day after day, car in the shop or not.
He took big hikes or runs (or both) every day but one from 6/18 to 6/30 2006. And drove a fair distance as well.
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.php?topic_id=2207307&tn=0#msg2211327
Ron, I've mentioned it a couple of times. I think inquiries at Mammoth Mt about employees arriving early on the 17th would be useful. Which of course can be done by phone. It might require approval from Mammoth Police.
I don't know if it would ease your mind but the hikes up Minarets trail or Lake Ediza trail are on good trails and beautiful. With an early start, either is reasonable to do from the trailhead in a moderate to long day. IF you're fit. Ediza is the easier goal. Another pair of eyes looking along the trails can't hurt.
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Alpineholydog
Trad climber
Spring Tx
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:36pm PT
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I would not have walked to those trailheads from Shady Rest. There would be no point as walking there or taking later trasportation would get you there at the same time.
If he walked the road from the Mountain Resort to Agnew is narrow. Dicey when 2 busses pass at same time. Would make sense to check the downhill side of that road. If he did walk at night could be hit and thrown. Some steep fall offs on that road.
All searchers and Family in our thoughts and prayers.
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:36pm PT
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Ron,
I would wait for Cragman's TR and the glasses outcome before making a move. With a seach area so wide and no experience I think you'd be better off manning the computer and working clues from that angle.
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mattyj
Mountain climber
Truckee
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:41pm PT
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getting up at 3 AM to start that hike actually sounds about right to me if he intended to climb the glacier before it got too soft.
I'd need more time, but it's certainly doable to start (for Ritter/Banner) on the 7AM shuttle. The saddle snowfield in particular doesn't get much sun - and unlike winter mountaineering, I've personally never been concerned about getting off the summer snowpack before it softens in midday.
I still have no idea how to piece together 1) heavy boots and step-in crampons 2) technical tool as opposed to a mountaineering axe 3) 3AM phone activation 4) lack of bivvy gear and 5) reliance on hitching and public transit into a coherent story. But I doubt he'd need to get underway at 3AM for the popular objectives out of Mammoth.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:47pm PT
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@alpine - I dont believe in psychics but supposedly the one who has found people before said we was on a narrow road and either hit by a car or fell over a guard rail into a ravine.
 Ron
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Dropline
Mountain climber
Somewhere Up There
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:48pm PT
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Question: would a person with no hiking experience, in average shape, be of any help out there or not? I feel like I should be out there. - Ron
Second what Crankster said. Let those with solid mountaineering skills and who also know the terrain look.
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:52pm PT
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1) heavy boots and step-in crampons 2) technical tool as opposed to a mountaineering axe
Matty, remember, Matt was using the gear he had, not necessarily the most ideal gear on any particular day. He had 2 technical axes and took one, which indicates he'd headed to a climb where he might encounter moderate snow/ice, otherwise, he'd have taken both his tools. The big boots were the only boots he had with him that accepted crampons, apparently.
I think Cragman has been searching the area with the highest probability, based on everything I have been reading for the last month - assuming the glasses turn out not to be Matt's. Personally, I would have been staying closer to Mammoth with my car about to be ready, however, Matt sounds like someone who was ready for a big adventure on any given day.
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mattyj
Mountain climber
Truckee
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:53pm PT
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Question: would a person with no hiking experience, in average shape, be of any help out there or not? I feel like I should be out there. - Ron
In the area where the glasses were found, probably - but if they are proven to be Matt's, the most productive thing at that point is to try (through online forums, media, etc) to locate the person who found them. Whether they were lying on the ground near the craters or found way out in the owens river headwaters wilderness has a huge impact on the search area.
Up near Ritter, Banner and the Minarets - definitively not. I have some stories from when my friends and I were first starting to get into class 3 / 4 terrain - even as someone who grew up backpacking, there were, shall we say, some learning experiences. For someone with zero outdoors experience, heading into an area with rockfall, steep snow/ice and routefinding challenges, all while focused on searching as well as simply navigating the terrain, it's just not worth the risk.
Edit: Crankster, I know that, although it sounds like he had strap-on crampons with him as well. My point was that the individual pieces of evidence keep pulling us in directions that don't mesh with the rest of the story, and we can't get too hung up any one of them - whether that's the 3AM phone check or the technical boots.
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Brandon-
climber
The Granite State.
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:53pm PT
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Wait a second, you don't 'believe' in physics?
Really?
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:58pm PT
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No mumbo jumbo hocus pocus for me. You can read in what ever you want to these so called visions, where were these guys on sept 10th 2001 if they are psychic.
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tdg119
Social climber
Northampton, PA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 12:59pm PT
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Ohh, lol. Just got it... Stupid iPad spell check
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synesthesiac
Trad climber
Davis, CA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:02pm PT
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The missing link to this scenario is any evidence he had any bivy gear with him, at least a sleeping bag liner or simiar. The High Sierra evenings were fairly mild on July 16th - I'm guessing lows in the mid-high 40's. However, I'm pretty sure anyone catching a ride to the Agnew Meadow trailhead the night before would at least have a light sleeping bag with him, probably a light pad, too.
Yeah, I was wondering about this too, but when I saw the photo of the pack with what appeared to be the removable pad it occurred to me that he might have just planned on using his pack as a half-length bivy bag along with the pad. Not exactly the most comfortable way to bed down, but if he only wanted a few hours of shut-eye then maybe it would make sense (also if he wanted to try it out in a mild setting before counting on it in more serious alpine setting).
Checking on headlight...
If he didn't bring a headlamp, I would question whether he ever left the campground aiming to do a big day. He seems too experienced to make a mistake like that. Of course, I'll bet most of us have more than one LED headlamp floating around in our gear so this might be hard to determine with any certainty.
What about a lightweight down puffy? I doubt he'd do the trailhead bivy that I'm imagining unless he had something like that with him.
On a different line of inquiry, has anyone inquired of the sysadmin(s) at summitpost to try to determine what pages he browsed on the 16th. Since he posted with his username, the web server logs probably contain his IP address for that post. Looking at what other pages were browsed, or search queries made from the same IP at about the same time might shed some light on local peaks that he may have been focused on.
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:02pm PT
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reliance on hitching and public transit into a coherent story. But I doubt he'd need to get underway at 3AM for the popular objectives out of Mammoth. Matt had hitched rides to climbs in the past when he had car trouble. See my link above.
He might leave at 4 AM if he had a pre-arranged ride or had allowed extra time to thumb a ride.
It's clear that Matt's phone was in the vicinity of Mammoth Mt at 3AM
But where was his phone??
If only one tower caught the signal, there is no directional information. Triangulation requires at least two towers.
It was within range of the beam pattern of the tower on top of Mammoth Mt. Consider that Verizon would have more interest in providing coverage from that tower down into Mammoth town than into the uninhabited and roadless wilderness to the north and west of the peak. (coverage area costs $$)
He might have still been at camp or anywhere along the 3 miles from Shady Rest to Minarets Summit (just west of the ski area western parking lot).
Verizon COULD provide a detailed map of the beam pattern. They DEFINITELY have this essential technical information. Has this been sought?
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Dropline
Mountain climber
Somewhere Up There
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:09pm PT
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Checking on headlight...
I wouldn't read too much into finding a headlamp among Matt's camping gear that he left behind. As Synesthesiac says, most of us have more than one. Car camping, where weight is not an issue, I'd for sure have two with me and that seems to be a common practice.
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crankster
Trad climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:12pm PT
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it sounds like he had strap-on crampons with him as well.
Matty, I agree there is so much that doesn't make sense. If he had strap-on crampons (see pic), which are able go over a light hiking shoe, and didn't take them it leads me to believe he'd headed for steeper terrain.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:12pm PT
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Inyo Crater is about a mile from the paved scenic loop road and a tourist area accessible by car with the main feature being a small but deep crater surrounded by forest...The craters are an ATV use area that share logging roads with Mt. Bikers and wood cutters...I can't imagine a climber or hiker venturing out there as the terrain is relatively flat , boring , and several miles hiking distance from Shady Rest...? The glasses may just be lost tourist swag...?
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crusher
climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:17pm PT
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I asked this upthread but no one answered or knew (and Ron maybe you can do this from home) - does the Main Lodge (Mammoth Mountain Ski area, which is near/across from Minaret Summit and entrance booth to the road down to Red's Meadows) have outside security cameras? If so, do any point towards the booth and/or potentially where the shuttle down to Red's is boarded?
I think it's worth checking - if there is footage of that area the police should be looking at it from overnight 16th into 17th. Esp. if it's possible that Matt got up really early, somehow got himself to the road down, turned on his phone to check time or check messages, then traveled down to the trailhead. Could be he walked down the road himself if it was in the middle of the night - I don't suppose there's much car traffic going down or up. People leave to go fishing really early too...
Has anyone in Mammoth been able to get a copy of the receipt yet from Rite Aid? Or have someone review their security camera footage? Still lagging on that...wish I could do something from here.
I hope Cragman and Cupcake are doing well...
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
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Inyo Crater …..and several miles hiking distance from Shady Rest...? By road and official trail: Google Earth says 4.9 miles. 3.3 as the crow flies.
A long way in the wrong direction of the high peaks to lug your boots and crampons.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:20pm PT
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crusher...The booths are about a mile up the road from the main lodge..I don't think there are any cameras at the booths..?
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mattyj
Mountain climber
Truckee
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Aug 26, 2013 - 01:28pm PT
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On a different line of inquiry, has anyone inquired of the sysadmin(s) at summitpost to try to determine what pages he browsed on the 16th.
I mentioned this a while back, but then the glasses thing happened and I think it got lost in the shuffle. Since no one has said anything, I'll contact them and find out.
Verizon COULD provide a detailed map of the beam pattern. They DEFINITELY have this essential technical information.
I don't pretend to be a guru on this stuff, and technical information is sadly hard to come by. But from what I've seen, even E911 locations can be off in mountainous terrain, and locations derived from tower data need to be taken with a very heavy grain of salt. Here's a map that shows everything with line of sight to a 100' tower atop Mammoth: http://bit.ly/14y9lm3. Cell signals aren't just line of sight, but it's a starting point.
Edit: link fixed.
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