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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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I simply asked if you took S-590. I'm capable of finding out course details on my own. I'm waiting to find out when they actually started teaching that class... but my recollection is they didn't even start teaching S-490 until the early 1990's and S-590 in the early '00's. Were you still fighting fires/taking classes in the early 90's?
Funny how you taking "enough classes for an MS" decades ago but not actually getting an MS makes you an "expert", even though you don't know what you are talking about or don't know how to effectively communicate relevant information. But people who ACTUALLY HAVE an MS AND a PhD AND PUBLISHED their ACTUAL RESEARCH don't know what they are talking about.
Arrogance and ignorance... nauseating.
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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge"..
I'm not the one who brought up classes or degrees. I simply reiterated the OBVIOUS FACT that air temperature affects fire behavior. I even quantified the potential water loss (leading to lower fuel moisture) due to a 1.0F increase in temperature. You are the one who started ranting about all your classes and titles and sh#t... presumably because you didn't know what you were talking about and refuse to admit when you are wrong.
Other than the fact that I have earned my PhD, have I ever listed the classes I have taken? Or the titles I have held?
Nope, but YOU have... several times... always in lieu of relevant information and only after you have been proven wrong.
If you are into that whole "self-development" and "learning" thing, you might want to google "psychological projection." It is a defense mechanism in which one attributes their own undesirable attributes to someone else...
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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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And "your" a willfully ignorant obstinate old man.
Once again, Ron adamantly claims something with unwavering authority based on his recollection from decades ago ("FIRES have NOT CHANGED") while the people who ACTUALLY DO THE RESEARCH (instead of stuffing animals) claim the opposite.
Damn, NOW who are we supposed to believe?
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/313/5789/940.short
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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We'll take your word for it Anderson. Where have you published (besides here of course)?
No IFs, MAYs or BUTs below:
Robust statistical associations between wildfire and hydroclimate in western forests indicate that increased wildfire activity over recent decades reflects sub-regional responses to changes in climate
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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You seem to think TITLES equal "knowledge"
Yes, you're right. Just because someone spent 4 years poring over the current & past literature, designed experiments and came up with a novel finding in the field doesn't mean he knows anything related to that field.
So I take it you use witch doctors over credentialed medical doctors for your health care?
And you probably also think GW Bush is one of the great minds of the 20th century.
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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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Even here in NV, we have had a late cool spring and green up. Fires here are one day wonders yet.
"Right" again. If by "one day wonders" you mean one wonders how anyone could claim with presumed authority that they only lasted one day...
Carpenter 1 Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 9,000 acres burned, ? contained.
Eight Mile Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 5,500 acres burned, 25% contained as of July 5, 2013.
Crescent Dune Fire, Start Date: July 1, 2013. Over 36,000 acres burned, contained July 4, 2013.
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monolith
climber
SF bay area
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And sub-regions can warm much higher then .9. Funny how averages work.
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mountainlion
Trad climber
California
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thanks Ron for all the years risking your life fighting fires...it isn't taken for granted from me and I mourn the loss of 19 men who were true HEROES known as HOTSHOTS because they were the best of the best!!!
I tried to join the fire crew in southern california a few years ago but missed the call because I stayed an extra day at JT to climb...got home and had a message to call on Sunday but didn't get the message until Monday night...to late they had already filled the position...
I don't discredit anyone's science on the issue but much like climbing I trust those who actually DO the activity (kind of like watching a climbing video interview on you tube recently--one of the guys interviewed was a competition climber who had NEVER climbed out of the gym--WTF does he know about climbing was my opinion (as well as the demeanor of the climber sitting next to him who honed his skills on real stone)...
fire technology has improved use your past knowledge to brush up and bring some relevant facts to the debate using science and past experience Ron...
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k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
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Topic Author's Reply - Jul 6, 2013 - 11:49am PT
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Bruce,, Ive been corresponding via email with several users who ARE or HAVE BEEN in the fire field and in TOP positions such as Incident Commanders. My take on the Yarnell fire was exactly the same as theirs
Ron, That's fantastic. I'd love to hear what the top folks in the fire field have said about the Yarnell fire, because I've been reading reports in the news and we all know how the MSM can screw a story.
BTW, did you ask them about the point we're debating? And that would be "Does an increase in the temperature make a difference in the wildfires we see? How about a 1 degree increase in overall temps?"
You see, because I have another news report here that says the higher temps do make a difference, while you seem to be claiming that that's hogwash.
link: Climate Change And Wildfires: Bigger, Fiercer Blazes Expected In West
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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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Mt lion the only diff between my times and now is that the 13 situations that "shout watch out" have been added to and are now 18 situations that "shout watch out". That is all..
Ron is right again... everything about wildfires was known decades ago... all the research and experience since then was entirely useless... they should just call Ron... all the other guys could do is come up with 5 more things for the crews to memorize.
The original claim:
But a a degree or so diff ISNT going to make or break ANYTHING in wildifires.
after being called out on his bullshit:
It doesnt take an Einstien to figure out increased temps lead to increased drying which leads to a LITTLE more fire.
Life is so much better when you can just admit you are wrong and move on, rather than desperately trying to defend your original misconception. I like it when I'm proven wrong... I get to learn something... that is what makes my life worth living.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/morriss-green-jobs-myths.pdf
Here is an analysis of the assumptions/projections of the green agenda that many governments (including ours) are advancing on their citizens. Getting the masses to believe in CAGW theory is central to its acceptance.
Its a few years old, but just as relevant to our current times as when it was produced in 2009. Everyone will recognize the terminology used-it is constantly in our media and issues from the mouths of our leaders.
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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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what a fuking idiot. 100% irrelevant to climate science.
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command error
Trad climber
Colorado
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I think dr crist you are worried. Your gw god has been exposed as nothing but a hollow lie. Find a new one that does not involve ripping off so much money.
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Dr. Christ
Mountain climber
State of Mine
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I think dr crist you are worried.
The only thing that worries me is that we have to share this planet with willfully ignorant fukheads like you.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 17, 2013 - 01:58am PT
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We thankyou for your continuing contributions to the chicken little sky is falling propaganda Bruce. NGFYS
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slayton
Trad climber
Here and There
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Jul 17, 2013 - 03:02am PT
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rick sumner We thankyou for your continuing contributions to the chicken little sky is falling propaganda Bruce. NGFYS
Do you care to share why you feel that way? Or is your brief diatribe enough to convince those that you wish to do so?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
honeoye falls,ny.greeneck alleghenys
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Jul 17, 2013 - 09:30am PT
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Hey Dick,what is your propaganda called?
Certainly not the truth.
1 2 3 .
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jul 24, 2013 - 12:01am PT
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Excuse me for interrupting my fellow idiots summer slumber away from the AGW war, but a new paper came to my attention. This fellow Akasofu is a geophycicist from UAF. He seems to hit on all the same mechanisms, excluding the present point in the Milankovitch cycles, i did on my simplified natural process explanation of our present point in climate change. Natural climate change- now that is something to think about while we await battle over the release of AR5.
http://scienceandpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/present_halting.pdf
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Tricouni
Mountain climber
Vancouver
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Jul 24, 2013 - 02:43am PT
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Fresh blood in this thread, at least for the moment.... I'm not a climate scientist, just a lowly geologist.
Rick, an analogy: give me a list of numbers made from the last 4 digits of a page from a phone book. You'll probably agree that the series is (pseudo)random. I could probably fit a curve to that series of numbers that would "explain" the series quite well. But my curve/equation would have no predictive power whatever. It may be complicated math, but it's not science.
That's the problem with this paper: a lack of predictive power, and we could no doubt do other fits to the data. It's all ad hoc.
In a way, it's somewhat similar to what Ptolemy and his followers had to do with his earth-centric cosmology. As more data accumulated, the hypothesis had to be tweaked with more and more complicated gears, wheels and what-not, all added after the fact. Copernicus's theory, on the other hand, had real predictive power, needed modification, and has been verified by observational data. THAT was science.
The problem as I see it with all the anti-AGW papers is that none of them provide a plausible alternative to the fact that increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to increased temperature, as first demonstrated by Arrhenius (pointed out many times on this forum). This effect is experimentally demonstrable, is well understood theoretically, and has been verified by observational data. THAT is science.
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