Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 15, 2016 - 06:39pm PT
|
Trump clinched Illinois.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 06:31am PT
|
Missouri is still outstanding on the Democratic side but it's basically a dead heat and the outcome will only serve publicity purposes at this point. They will essentially split the 71 delegates evenly. Factoring this in, Sanders is at 805 to Clinton's 1129 pledged delegates. There are 2,922 pledged delegates yet to win which means that Sanders will need to win 55% of the remaining to clinch the nomination without superdelegate support. Clinton needs 40.5% to cross the 50% mark of pledged delegates. It's largely inconceivable that she can't win 40% of the remaining vote and she currently holds a larger lead over Sanders (both in pledeged and superdelegates) than Obama ever did over her in 2008.
Trump needs 616 more delegates to win and has officially passed the 50% mark on his path to the nomination. The Republican race differs in that a number of the remaining states are winner take all AND the proportional states are not directly proportional; they have rules that award nothing to candidates polling below a 10% or 15% threshold and give bonus delegates for winning congressional districts and whatnot. This means that even though Trump is only winning pluralities and not majorities, he is more likely to pull in more than 50% of the delegates from these states if he continues to win with 35 or 40% of the vote.
The real trick with the Repubs is that the delegates pledged to defunct candidates can throw their support behind a different candidate after the first ballot! The drama! The intrigue! Still so much more to come this crazy, crazy year. Cleveland is going to be amazing no matter what happens.
|
|
crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 06:47am PT
|
Sarah Palin's convention speech should be one for the ages. It could make anything on House of Cards look tame, an all-out assault on the English language.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 06:51am PT
|
So true, crank. Though I doubt they will give her a prime time slot anymore.
*edit*
Boehner just came out for Ryan as GOP nominee if the first ballot fails. As much as I want this to happen I think Trump will clinch it.
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 07:08am PT
|
I can't wait to watch the republican convention.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 07:21am PT
|
Obama announced his nomination for the SCOTUS.
WASHINGTON — President Obama on Wednesday will nominate Merrick B. Garland as the nation’s 113th justice, according to White House officials, choosing a centrist appeals court judge widely respected even by Republicans in hopes his choice will be considered by the Senate.
In deciding on Judge Garland, Mr. Obama picked a man who persevered through a lengthy political battle in the mid-1990s that delayed his own confirmation to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit by more than a year. Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, argued at the time that the vacancy should not be filled.
Twenty years later, Mr. Grassley is again standing in the way of Judge Garland’s appointment, this time arguing as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee that the next president should be the one to pick the successor to Justice Antonin Scalia, who died suddenly in February.
Judge Garland is often described as brilliant and, at 63, is somewhat aged for a Supreme Court nominee. He is two years older than Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who has been with the court for more than 10 years. The two served together on the appeals court and are said to be friends.
The Oklahoma City bombing case in 1995 helped shape Judge Garland’s professional life. He coordinated the Justice Department’s response, starting the case against the bombers and eventually supervising their prosecution.
Judge Garland insisted on being sent to the scene even as bodies were being pulled out of the wreckage, said Jamie S. Gorelick, then the deputy attorney general.
“At the time, he said to me the equivalent of ‘Send me in, coach,’” Ms. Gorelick said. “He worked around the clock, and he was flawless.”
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 07:50am PT
|
I wish he would pick someone younger.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 07:54am PT
|
He's not going to get confirmed anyway.
|
|
dirtbag
climber
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 07:56am PT
|
No, he won't be so it doesn't matter. He's basically taking one for the team by agreeing to be nominated.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 10:42am PT
|
Yeah I was thinking about how the conversation with all of these nominees would have included serious talk about how they would likely just be a political football. His speech today was very touching and personal. He seems like the right pick from a political standpoint. I think regular people will really connect with him.
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 10:48am PT
|
The Trump supporters and the all-or-nothing self-styled conservatives (e.g. the Heritage Foundation) continue on their quest to destroy the Republican party.
First my rag on the all-or-nothings. Just this morning, I got an email from the Heritage Foundation bemoaning the fact that some Republican senators actually voted to confirm Obama's Secretary of Education appointment. Their gripe: he supports Common Core. Don't these geniuses have access to a calendar? The acting Secretary - over whom the Senate has virtually no say - can implement everything the Heritage Foundation dislikes for the rest of Obama's term, with no interference from the Senate. Why play into the hands of the party's critics who allege obstructionism?
Round two on the all-or-nothings. That same email bemoaned Congress's trying to pass a budget rather than insisting on "conservative spending." I guess they think that the budget can be approved with a simple majority vote of both houses, without the President's signature or overriding his veto. I can't begin to say how disgusted I am with that sort of posturing that has no chance of enacting legislation. It would be far better to enact the best real budget we can now, under regular order, than to proceed with brinkmanship that can only result in enactment of another continuing resolution.
Then there's Trump. I got a call from my life-long best friend (well, he became my second-best when I got married 32 years ago, but you get the picture) because he wanted a sanity check. He told me that he would vote for Hillary if Trump were the Republican nominee. I told him my wife and I came to the same conclusion. Trump has never demonstrated qualification to lead this country. The only substantive policy he advocates is neo-isolationism and a trade war. Those who think that's smart should review the political and economic history of the 1930's. Those policies brought on and perpetuated both the Great Depression and World War II.
The Republicans still have a chance to salvage the party, but the Trump distraction has already lost the presidential election. Norton is right. We'll never get to 270.
John
Edit: I had to correct a couple of typos, one of which was doubtless a Freudian slip. I initially wrote "trade was" rather than "trade war." This probably reflected the fact that the latter would cause the former.
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 10:55am PT
|
That Heritage Foundation thing sounds like a fundraising letter. Was it? Clinton is functionally a traditional Republican so I think there might be a lot of moderate Republicans who need to get over their sense of party identity this summer. Thanks for the honest and detailed posts.
|
|
TradEddie
Trad climber
Philadelphia, PA
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 01:46pm PT
|
The same way adding poll taxes, literacy tests and former prisoner restrictions kept many poor and minorities from voting.
Your argument is based on the false premise that owning a gun makes you safer. Once again I request any data you can present that supports that assertion.
TE
|
|
JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 02:15pm PT
|
HDDJ, The Heritage Foundation sends an email under the name of The Daily Signal, usually covering five or so topics. Jim DeMint is no dummy, but a lot of the Heritage positions reflect the Ted Cruz type of all-or-nothing brinksmanship that produces nothing but bad headlines for Republicans. I find it a very useful daily check on the hard conservative positions.
On the left, I always try to check The Nation, which provides thoughtful and articulate views from the left. I also get the daily feed from The Guardian. Then there's occupy Democrats and Moveon.org, among others.
None of these sources are nearly as entertaining or informative as ST, of course.
John
|
|
Escopeta
Trad climber
Idaho
|
|
Mar 16, 2016 - 02:18pm PT
|
Your argument is based on the false premise that owning a gun makes you safer. Once again I request any data you can present that supports that assertion.
It worked for me. Is that proof enough?
|
|
HighDesertDJ
Trad climber
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 16, 2016 - 04:51pm PT
|
Escopeta posted It worked for me. Is that proof enough?
Anecdata! The core of any sound policy decision.
John- Sounds like a pretty good diet though I'm not sure why anyone would read MoveOn (and I don't know what OccupyDemocrats is). The Atlantic is doing some of the best stuff out there right now and you would probably enjoy reading some of Cotes' major pieces on race.
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
Mar 19, 2016 - 08:39am PT
|
|
|
Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
|
|
Mar 19, 2016 - 08:50am PT
|
Ted Cruz picks Phil Gramm as his financial advisor
The very insider person responsible for the 2008 financial collapse
That's because Ted is maverick outsider, right?
Phil Gramm
As chairman of the Senate Banking Committee from 1995 through 2000, Gramm was Washington's most prominent and outspoken champion of financial deregulation. He played a leading role in writing and pushing through Congress the 1999 repeal of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act, which separated commercial banks from Wall Street. He also inserted a key provision into the 2000 Commodity Futures Modernization Act that exempted over-the-counter derivatives like credit-default swaps from regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Credit-default swaps took down AIG, which has cost the U.S. $150 billion thus far.
http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877330,00.html
|
|
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
|
Mar 19, 2016 - 02:22pm PT
|
The very insider person responsible for the 2008 financial collapse
BwaHaHaHaHaHa! He so totally talked all those retards into buying houses with ARMS.
|
|
EdwardT
Trad climber
Retired
|
|
Mar 19, 2016 - 03:55pm PT
|
Didn't the most of the Democrats (in both Houses) vote for the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act?
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|