Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
|
|
|
Feb 11, 2011 - 09:58pm PT
|
Sitting back Friday night while the dog woofs in her sleep by the woodstove, finally a chance to do a little reading ... splitting time between Anansi Boys and a recent issue of Science.
Science Jan 14 has several pieces on past climate. Since this Supertopo thread veers onto that topic too, here's one quote from a piece by atmospheric scientist Jeffrey Kiehl, pulling together some recent research findings, that seemed worth passing along.
Earth's CO2 concentration is rapidly rising to a level not seen in ∼30 to 100 million years, and Earth's climate was extremely warm at these levels of CO2. If the world reaches such concentrations of atmospheric CO2, positive feedback processes can amplify global warming beyond current modeling estimates. The human species and global ecosystems will be placed in a climate state never before experienced in their evolutionary history and at an unprecedented rate. Note that these conclusions arise from observations from Earth's past and not specifically from climate models.
|
|
213
climber
Where the Froude number often >> 1
|
|
|
Feb 11, 2011 - 10:39pm PT
|
It is certain that we are in uncharted territory with atmospheric CO2 levels. The response of the Earth system to such concentrations is (obviously) poorly understood. The linkages between CO2 and estimated temperature that Dr. Kiehl describes are quite scary, however. As is his understanding of geography...Thinking simply, remember what the Earth looked like between 30 and 100 million years ago?
Not too different than today, but enough so that I would not call it the same place. For example, oceans are connected through the Equator. Hmm. Different ocean currents anyone? Would not the thermal circulations (atmospheric and oceanic, individually as well as coupled) behave quite a bit different, thus making such a linkage to temperature shaky at best? Dr. Kiehl should realize this, he took many courses in fluid dynamics. The heat engine continues, but I doubt in the same manner with which it operates today...anyone got a model to prove me wrong (Ho: The coupled global thermal circulation is the same during the Cretaceous as it is today)???...though maybe the superheated tropical Atlantic could provide some vicious diabatic forcing to make up for the small body of water for some awesome paleohurricanes LOL.
He only mentions the biogeography as being similar...No mention of clouds or aerosols, which are obviously VERY important in the radiative budget (also the source of the greatest uncertainty in all of climate (IPCC 2007)). Sure, CO2 forcing is one of many ingredients in a very tricky recipe, but I think he oversimplifies too much here to make his point. And yes, we very well may expect (and will receive) future conditions completely not forecast by GCMs. This goes without saying, but he phrases it in a way that he can't be wrong. Model world will always be different than reality with complex nonlinear systems. Sorry, but I expect better from Science's peer review team. But I certainly agree, we are in a whole world unlike any we've seen before!!! So go climbing and laugh!
|
|
TGT
Social climber
So Cal
|
|
|
Feb 11, 2011 - 11:05pm PT
|
|
|
Chiloe
Trad climber
Lee, NH
|
|
|
Feb 11, 2011 - 11:58pm PT
|
213, cool map but I think you overcranked the Wayback machine. That looks mid Cretaceous, whereas Kiehl was writing about late Eocene. Making his statement that paleogeography was not "radically different" (at 35ma) more understandable, though you may still disagree.
Perhaps you could elaborate (or have written somewhere?) on your point about circulation. Do you think there a mechanism by which circulation inferred from Eocene geography and proxies could have made the planet 16C warmer than present? Or made PETM temperature reconstructions that much too high?
|
|
bookworm
Social climber
Falls Church, VA
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 08:22am PT
|
"In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years," atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871."
here's the whole article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html
|
|
Douglas Rhiner
Mountain climber
Truckee , CA
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 10:43am PT
|
Now this makes sense.....
We may not be able to do anything about the weather, extreme or otherwise. But we can make sure we have the resources to deal with it when it comes.
|
|
TGT
Social climber
So Cal
|
|
|
Feb 13, 2011 - 12:43pm PT
|
I just cleaned a couple of pounds of carbon out of the barbecue.
Where do I turn it in for credit.
|
|
bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
|
|
|
Feb 17, 2011 - 11:06pm PT
|
Are we still saying that CO2 is causing all this drastic weather??? Are we still having it both ways?
Has anybody given creedance to solar activity yet as a more major player?
EDIT: FWIW, there has been mucho snow in San Francisco before the advent of the Earth Crushing Automobile arrived.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/parenting/detail?entry_id=83256
idiots....
|
|
blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
|
|
|
Feb 18, 2011 - 12:43am PT
|
Dr. F, quick question--what is the wettest year on record?
|
|
k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 1, 2011 - 05:20pm PT
|
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft (which in its heyday was referred to as the Evil Empire) is the protagonist in an interesting article in Rolling Stone.
"America's most successful entrepreneur" states "The right goal is not to cut our carbon emissions in half. The right goal is zero".
But certainly CC, Bluey, Booky, and the list of other non-comprehending zealots, what could Gates know that you don't.
If you care to educate yourselves (beyond the most excellent posts by the scientists present in this thread), then pick up and read the article in RS #1117, it is possible (but not likely) that your mind could be opened.
|
|
blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
|
|
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft (which in its heyday was referred to as the Evil Empire) is the protagonist in an interesting article in Rolling Stone.
"America's most successful entrepreneur" states "The right goal is not to cut our carbon emissions in half. The right goal is zero".
How about calling him America's most successful court-certified illegal monopolist, a more accurate and enlightening description.
How much carbon does your hero use to maintain his ginormous mansion (66,000 sq ft) for his small family? More than a bit of hypocrisy, no? At least it's an energy efficient palace.
If you want to learn something interesting about global warming, you can read the following article in the Christmas edition of the The Economist, which explains how GW and human intervention has turned formerly barren Ascension Island into an earthly paradise due to increased temps and precipitation (at least that's a leading theory).
http://www.economist.com/node/17722704?story_id=17722704&CFID=157609201&CFTOKEN=42876164
|
|
k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 1, 2011 - 06:38pm PT
|
blahblah, attacking Gates without reading the article is perfect for your brand of folks.
And what brand is that??
Also, nice article on a new paradise. The trouble is, how many folks will be able to move to these more moderate climates when the warming makes their current cities uninhabitable?
Why should I be impressed at the lack of intelligence some folks gladly display.
|
|
corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
|
|
-Thank God that Liberals have chosen to be so sensitive to climate change and will die off quickly and allow the rest of us to go on with our lives as normal.
That's what I call altruism ! Hip hip Horah!
|
|
k-man
Gym climber
SCruz
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 1, 2011 - 09:12pm PT
|
Hufpo has the answer!
Actually, the article says that scientists from NASA are modeling the scenario.
|
|
corniss chopper
climber
breaking the speed of gravity
|
|
|
Mar 22, 2011 - 06:44pm PT
|
Association Of Irritated Residents Defeats California Air Resources Board’s Global Warming Plan
They insist on max regulation of emissions by CARB rather than what is in the works and the judge agreed.
Hilarious if you don't think of how much prices will go up on everything.
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=3650
|
|
bluering
Trad climber
Santa Clara, CA
|
|
|
Apr 13, 2011 - 12:41am PT
|
The film's basic premise is that the current scientific opinion on the anthropogenic causes of global warming has numerous scientific flaws, and that vested monetary interests in the scientific establishment and the media discourage the public and the scientific community from acknowledging or even debating this. The film asserts that the publicised scientific consensus is the product of a "global warming activist industry" driven by a desire for research funding. Other culprits, according to the film, are Western environmentalists promoting expensive solar and wind power over cheap fossil fuels in Africa, resulting in African countries being held back from industrialising.
More research, Ed? More current? How long will this charade go on??? It may even be true, but the data isn't there. Or it is there if you choose to look at weather cycles from history.
|
|
TGT
Social climber
So Cal
|
|
|
Apr 13, 2011 - 11:19pm PT
|
It's all the potheads fault!
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2011/04/12/marijuana-causes-global-warming.html?ana=e_pft
In California, some 400,000 authorized growers use about 3 percent of the state’s electricity for their business.
“This corresponds to the electricity use of 1 million average California homes, greenhouse-gas emissions equal to those from 1 million average cars, and energy expenditures of $3 billion a year,” Mills says. However, since California is such a green state, it only generates 20 percent of national carbon dioxide emissions from pot growing, while using 70 percent of nationwide energy for this industry.
Read more: Marijuana causes global warming, uses 1% of U.S. electricity | San Francisco Business Times
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!